2. 自考
  3. EL Nino While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 EL Nino(厄尔尼诺现象，指赤道东太平洋南美沿岸海水温度剧烈上升的现象。)a few

EL Nino While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 EL Nino(厄尔尼诺现象，指赤道东太平洋南美沿岸海水温度剧烈上升的现象。)a few

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问题                               EL Nino
    While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 EL Nino(厄尔尼诺现象，指赤道东太平洋南美沿岸海水温度剧烈上升的现象。)a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large EL Nino events up to two years in advance. That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that EL Nino can produce in various parts of the world.
    Using a computer, the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later EL Nino occurrences(发生)between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate EL Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures. The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature.
    The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C. Weare, a meteorologist(气象学家)at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said, " It suggests EL Nino is indeed predictable. "
    " This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods, " said Weare. He added that the new method "makes it possible to predict EL Nino at long lead(提前的)times". Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said.
    The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance. The 1997 EL Nino, for example, caused an estimated $20 billion in damage world wide, offset(抵消)by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. The 1877 EL Nino, meanwhile, coincided(同时发生)with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China, prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said.
    When EL Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report.
    While predicting smaller EL Nino events remains tricky(复杂的), the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed.
    EL Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February. The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.
    The new forecasting method does not predict any major EL Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.
The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EL Nino occurrences.
选项 A、真
B、假
C、Not Given
答案C
解析 该题涉及的内容和前面出现的问题有关，the first是题干句的关键词，利用该词作为线索查找原文，发现文章中并没有出现这个词。因此再利用题干句出现的其他特征词sea—surfacetemperatures为线索继续查找原文，发现下文新的相关句“Other models also use sea-surfacetemperatures，but…”，但根据此句并不能推断出其他的方法比the Columbia University researchers使用的方法晚，因此判断题干句的说法没提到。
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