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  3. Economists are scratching their heads to explain the pork price jump. Some blame it on blue-ear, a contagious disease which may

Economists are scratching their heads to explain the pork price jump. Some blame it on blue-ear, a contagious disease which may

admin2013-08-05  31
问题     Economists are scratching their heads to explain the pork price jump. Some blame it on blue-ear, a contagious disease which may have killed 18,000 or 20m pigs, depending on whom you believe. Others say the main cause is the surge in global grain prices, which have increased the cost of feed for pigs. It is not only the Chinese who are paying more for their pork. Capital Economics, a London-based economics firm, points out that American pork prices have also jumped by more than 50% over the past year.
    Economists, however, may recall the old "hog cycle" that they learnt about in their first year of economics. This explains why prices in certain markets are subject to periodic booms and busts, because of a lag between the response in production to a change of price. Chinese pork prices today are not much higher than at their peak in 2004. High prices then prompted farmers to produce more, and prices fell sharply for two years. That in turn discouraged farmers from raising pigs. The inevitable result was today’s higher prices, which will probably lead to glut and falling prices tomorrow. Pigs may fly. But not forever.
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答案 另有一些人认为主要原因是全球谷物价格的猛增拉高了养猪成本。“吃肉贵”的还不仅仅是中国人，据伦敦一家经济资本公司称，过去一年美国的肉价涨幅也超过了50％。 但是，也许经济学家还记得刚接触经济学时学到的古老的“猪循环”理论。这一理论解释了某一市场的物价为何受到周期性繁荣与萧条的影响——因为生产对价格变化的反应总是滞后的。与2004年猪肉价格最高时相比，中国现在的肉价并没有高出很多。当时的高价推动农民提高了肉产量，随后两年肉价便急剧下降。如此一来农民养猪的积极性也随之减弱。这就不可避免地引起了今天肉价的上扬，而今后猪肉也可能会供应过剩，价格又降下来。猪能“升天”，但终会“降落”。
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