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Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil

admin2010-06-11  62
问题     Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost ＄ 26 a barrel, up from less than ＄10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979- 80, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
    The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
    Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to beless severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s.
    Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in-the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, its oil prices averaged ＄ 22 a barrel for a full year, compared with ＄13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25- 0.5% of GDP. That is less than one quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies —to which heavy industry has shifted --have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
    One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries  ______.
选项 A、heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
B、income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
C、manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
D、oil price changes have no significant influence on GDP
答案D
解析 从文章倒数第二段中，我们可以看到“Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were，and 30 less sensitive to swings in the oil price．Energy conservation，a shih to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy，energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption．Software，consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production．For each dollar of GDP(in constant prices) rich economics now use nearly 50%less oil than in 1973．The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that，it oil prices averaged ＄ 22 a barrel for a full year，compared with ＄ 13 in 1998，this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25—0.5% of GDP．”作者试图说明富裕国家降低企业油耗，因此油价的增长对CDP没有什么太大的影响，因此D是符合条件的，与此同时，我们可以判断出来A，B的错误，而“On the other hand，oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy intensive， and so could be more seriously squeezed．”在依靠石油进口的国家，重工业被压缩，但是依靠石油进口来发展重工业的国家不仅有富裕的国家，还有贫穷的国家，所以这一题选D。
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