首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Game Theory: Climate Talks Destined to Fail A modestly successful outcome from the latest round of international climate cha
Game Theory: Climate Talks Destined to Fail A modestly successful outcome from the latest round of international climate cha
admin
2012-07-11
22
问题
Game Theory: Climate Talks Destined to Fail
A modestly successful outcome from the latest round of international climate change negotiations in Cancun,Mexico,has supporters breathing a huge sigh of relief.
After last year’s session in Copenhagen, Denmark, most governments and activists were put on the defensive to prove that multilateral action on global warming was even possible. They now feel justified.
But even as optimism strengthens ahead of the next year’s major conference in South Africa,one famous predictor says it’s still more likely that we’ll see a repeat of Copenhagen’s performance toward the end of 2011.
Last year, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a New York University professor and partner in a Manhattan consultancy, famously predicted the flat outcome at Copenhagen in an article he penned for Foreign Policy magazine,one month before that conference began.
Confidence in the computer model he designed that led to that conclusion informs his views on where the talks are headed next;Namely,multilateral negotiations will not fix the climate change problem, regardless of what U. N. officials and others claim.
"It’s depressing, it is what it is,but unfortunately it was right," Bueno de Mesquita said in an interview. " We got nothing out of Copenhagen. "
Bueno de Mesquita makes a living by calculating the likely outcomes to various scenarios under the lens of game theory,a mathematical tool political scientists use to better understand how power relationships inform various strategies in negotiations. By applying numerical values to the influence and attitudes of actors, he has used his private software to accurately predict the outcome of elections, foreign aid spending decisions and the Copenhagen talks.
" Universal treaties have one of two qualities," Bueno de Mesquita said in explaining the modeling. "They don’t ask people to change what they’re doing,and so they’re happy to sign on...or it asks for fundamental changes in behavior and it lacks monitoring and punishing provisions that are credible. "
His main argument: Governments probably won’t conclude a major international treaty to reduce atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, ever. And even if they do, any such treaty won’t actually work.
Thus the essence of the Kyoto Protocol (京都议定书) ,now scheduled to expire at the end of 2012, he said. That agreement was achieved because developing countries don’t have to do anything to comply, and thus happily signed on,while developed countries were satisfied that they faced no actual punishment for not meeting their emissions reduction targets. And even then, the United States felt compelled to later leave the treaty, a further indication of the difficulty of the climate change problem, said Bueno de Mesquita.
Industrial nations act individually,but public support weakens
In other words Just because climate change is a serious problem doesn’t mean politicians will come together to actually do something about it,he said. First and foremost,leaders will,by and large,act on what keeps them in power or helps them to get re-elected, and promising their constituents light economic pain now for vaguely understood benefits years into the future isn’t a winning formula.
" People have a tendency to slide too easily from the facts of a matter to the political response as if the facts simply dictate what politicians do because politicians are going to do what is good for society," said Bueno de Mesquita. "It’s a nice thought;unfortunately,it’s not how it happens. Politicians are out for politicians. "
The modeling he led his students through last year,using the same methodology that has made his New York firm, Mesquita & Roundell LLC, a success, predicts that over the next 30 to 40 years, developed nations will gradually adopt emissions standards more strict than those called for under Kyoto Protocol in fits and starts.
At the same time,real public support for these moves will gradually weaken. That’s because emissions rates will continue to increase in Brazil,India and other rapidly developing nations,more than offsetting any cuts achieved in the richer world.
Although negotiators are aiming for steep cuts in emissions by 2050, the computer model predicts that by this time, the world will come to realize that multilateral efforts simply aren’t working. And by the end of the century," political will for tougher regulations will have dried up almost completely," Bueno de Mesquita writes in his Foreign Policy piece.
The reasoning behind the model is spelled out in Bueno de Mesquita’s 2009 book The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-interest to See and Shape the Future. A Central Intelligence Agency assessment says his methodology is 90 percent accurate.
Peter Wood, a mathematician and fellow at the Australian National University who studies how game theory applies in climate negotiations,sees an inherent prisoners’ dilemma at work here. "Climate negotiations themselves are not a prisoners’ dilemma,but addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of international coordination is very similar to a prisoners’ dilemma,leading to a sub-optimal outcome ," Wood explained. "This is because (almost) every country wants global emission reductions,but would prefer that someone else take on the burden. "
So then why did the Montreal Protocol work?
Wood isn’t as fatalistic as Bueno de Mesquita’s model. He believes a new global treaty can be achieved by December 2011, or at the very least a set of individual agreements along the lines spelled out at Cancun—money for adaptation in the developing world, an anti-deforestation strategy, and other steps. The key is to overcome the free-rider problem by incorporating the appropriate incentives that will get nations to cooperate.
" One way that this could work is to link cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues ,such as trade," said Wood. " If a country introduces a carbon price, it may also want to introduce a ’ border tax adjustment’ on emissions-intensive imported goods. "
The NYU professor agrees that mankind can eventually solve the problem,just not along the lines governments are currently attempting to.
"The nature...of international,global treaties is that they almost always fail to do anything," he said. " People get so caught up in the flowery words they don’t focus, from my point of view, on where they might have a political shot at being successful. "
There’s no logical basis in the famous saying that " global problems require global solutions," he says, contending that a series of localized, grass-roots or unilateral initiatives can add up to a solution if pursued appropriately.
Bueno de Mesquita would even like to apply his game theory modeling again,to see if it can provide clues as to why some multilateral agreements, like the Montreal Protocol, do work. Unfortunately, no government or institution seems interested, he says, perhaps fearful of the conclusions that would be reached.
"Actually,I,with colleagues in Germany and Netherlands,put in several grant proposals to do that,and not just to do that but also to identify strategies for improving outcomes," he said. "We never get funded. "
Bueno de Mesquita mainly argues that governments may be unwilling to______.
选项
A、ensure the signed treaty works
B、agree on reducing concentrations of carbon dioxide
C、ask people to change what they are doing
D、monitor and punish those who violate the treaty
答案
B
解析
本题考查Bueno de Mesquita认为政府不情愿做什么事情。定位句指出,政府可能不会缔结关于减少二氧化碳和其他温室气体的大气浓度这一国际条约。B)是对原文的同义转述,故为本题答案。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/zYE7777K
0
大学英语六级
相关试题推荐
Doyouhavetroublerememberingpeople’snames?Thenmaybethisisforyou.Whenyouworryaboutre-memberingpeople’snamesan
A、Menshouldrememberwhateverwomensay.B、Menshouldgivewomenwhatevertheywant.C、Womengiveitwhenmenfailtocatchwha
LocatedtothenorthwestofLondon,OxfordUniversity_____________________(以其学术成就而闻名遐迩)。
PartⅡReadingComprehension(SkimmingandScanning)Directions:Inthispart,youwillhave15minutestogooverthepassageq
A、Hehaslearnedalotfromhisownmistakes.B、Heisquiteexperiencedintrainingwilddogs.C、Hefindsrewardmoreeffective
A、Sheisstubborn.B、Sheislonely.C、Sheisnoteasy-going.D、Sheishopeless.A男士说的takeone’sownway表示“一意孤行”,女士的话进一步补充说明“直到所有
MorethantwomillionpeopleinEuropenowhavefibrebroadbanddirecttotheirhome,suggestsasurvey.Thelatestfigures
A、Dopresent-daychildrenlearnlessthantheirforefathersinthegoodolddays?B、WhydoJapanesebusinessmensendtheirchild
Asthegraduationisdrawingnear,everystudentbeganto________hisfuture.
Auto-Tune:WhyPopMusicSoundsPerfectIfyouhaven’tbeenlisteningtopopradiointhepastfewmonths,you’vemissedthe
随机试题
A.碘海醇B.泛影葡胺C.注射用六氟化硫微泡(声诺维)D.131IE.18FDG属于离子型造影剂的是
A.寻常型天疱疮B.落叶型天疱疮C.大疱性类天疱疮D.获得性大疱性表皮松解症E.疱疹样皮炎水疱发生于棘层下部的疾病是
下列表述中,完全正确的组合是:()①西周时期的契约分为买卖契约和借贷契约,买卖契约称为“傅别”,借贷契约称为“质剂”。②一夫一妻制、同姓不婚、父母之命是西周时期婚姻缔结的三大原则,而且合礼合法的婚姻必须通过特定的程序方告成立,即“六礼”。
对沥青混合料矿料级配的抽检、取样应在摊铺现场进行。( )
下列关于补偿器的叙述正确的是()。
一家企业在整个业务流程的所有环节上都努力运用科学的方法提高效率,减少失误率,以使整个流程达到最优状态来满足客户的要求。这种绩效改进方法是()。
某市一化工厂储备了一种化学药品,这种药品若储藏不好,就会造成放射性污染。但在购进这批药品时,已根据专家检验,存放、设备、密封等都不存在违反规定问题,不会造成污染。但仍然有消息传出说这种物质已经泄漏,并且会对人体造成很大影响。媒体也根据这些小道消息做了报道,
(2019年上海)统筹党政群机构改革不是简单地党政分开或党政合一,而是要在改革和完善党的领导方式与执政方式上下功夫,其基本原则不包括()。
学生在学校应该学习的一门学科或应该从事的一种活动的内容及其有计划的进程,这是指______。
设向量组(I)α1,α2,…,αn,其秩为r1,向量组(Ⅱ)β1,β2,…,βn,其秩为r2,且βi(i=l,2,…,s)均可以由α1,…α1线性表示,则().
最新回复
(
0
)