首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the expe
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the expe
admin
2011-05-29
47
问题
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not Change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and. low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a perfect analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
Which method may involve historical weather data?
选项
A、The trends method.
B、The analog method.
C、Both climatology method and analog method
D、The trends method and the persistence method.
答案
C
解析
第四段的第二句告诉我们,the climatology method需要取多年积累起来的气象数据的平均值。第三句提供了具体例子。第五段的第二句和第三句说明,analog method也需要比较和对比历史上某一天的气象状况。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/3H6O777K
0
考博英语
相关试题推荐
Lookatthechartsbelow.TheyshowthesalesoftelephonesindifferentdepartmentstoresfromMondaytoWednesday.Whichc
Lookatthegraphsbelow.Theyshowunemploymentineightdifferentregionscomparedtothenationalaverage.Whichregiond
Lookatthechartsbelow.Itshowsroadaccidentfiguresindifferentcountriesfrom1972to1979.Whichfiguredoeseachsenten
Forallpersonalcallsexceptemergencies,pleaseusepayphoneinReception.
Lookatthechartsbelow.Theyshowprofitsbeforetaxandprofitmarginsforeightdifferentcompaniesfrom1998to2002Which
To…AllstaffSubject:WarningToavoidlossofinformationduringthepredictedovernightpowercut,pleaseremembertoshutdown
ThemilitaryaspectoftheUnitedStatesCivilWarhasalwaysattractedthemostattentionfromscholars.Theroarofgunfire,t
Thesemantic______ofancientdocumentsisnotunique.Eveninourowntime,manydocumentsaredifficulttodecipher.
随机试题
Frenchfries,washeddownwithapintofsoda,areafavoritepartoffast-foodlunchesanddinnersformillionsofAmericanyou
古希腊美学的核心是________。柏拉图的________和________,亚里士多德的________。
在不同的组织结构中,管理者在时间、竞争和成本方面的压力不同,压力越大,越有可能降低伦理标准。
下述情况中,属于自身调节的是
【背景资料】某工程基础为整体筏板,地下2层、地上12层、裙房4层,钢筋混凝土全现浇框架-剪力墙结构,由某施工单位施工,施工过程中发生了以下事件:场地平整结束后,施工单位进行了工程定位和测量放线,然后进行土方开挖工作。基坑采取大放坡开挖,
某混凝土工程,目标成本为364000元,实际成本为383760元。根据表1F420154—1相关资料进行项目成本分析。该工程施工项目成本差异是多少?
关于会计核算的表述,正确的是()
审计机关应当自收到审计报告之日起()内,将审计意见书和审计决定送达被审计单位和有关单位。
庆祝香港回归祖国______周年大会暨香港特别行政区第三届政府就职典礼于2007年7月1日在香港隆重举行。
Whendidthemancallthewomanlasttime?
最新回复
(
0
)