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  3. Japan’ s Tough Choice Japanese policymakers are in a real fix. They seem to have tried almost everything to deal with the pe

Japan’ s Tough Choice Japanese policymakers are in a real fix. They seem to have tried almost everything to deal with the pe

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问题     Japan’ s Tough Choice
    Japanese policymakers are in a real fix. They seem to have tried almost everything to deal with the persistent deflation in the world’ s second-biggest economy, but failed. Interest rates are close to zero. They have pumped trillions of yen into the economy—in fact, they have issued so many government bonds that their credit rating is threatened. But deflation persists. And so, it appears, the only thing left is devaluation. In December 3, the yen weakened by 7% against the dollar. This month it fell still further, to ￥ 133. 4 against the dollar, a 39-month low, raising suspicions that devaluation is already government policy.
    Japan’ s problems are acute indeed. The Nikkei stock market index stands at little more than a quarter of the level of its 1989 peak. The country has been in recession for the past year and national income is expected to shrink again this year. Industrial production withered by 13% in the year to November. Consumer prices, which have been falling since 1999, are expected to continue to decline this year. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, it appeared as if inflation was the only evil. But deflation comes with its own problems. For one, consumers hold off spending because they know their money will be worth more tomorrow. Demand falls. Companies lay off workers, making consumers even warier about spending, and demand falls again. In Japan, there are two other problems : real interest rates, that is interest rates after inflation, become very high, and deflation swells an already heavy debt burden in real terms.
    Japanese unemployment is at a historical high of 5. 5%. On top of this, there is believed to be much hidden unemployment across the economy. The actions taken so far seem to have had little effect. Japanese consumers have refused to increase their spending, and the Japanese savings rate remains among the highest in the world.
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答案 日本政府的痛苦抉择 日本决策者现在正是一筹莫展。这个世界上的第二经济大国，国内通货紧缩势头持续不减。决策者似乎使尽了浑身解数：国内利率已调低近乎零，动用了上万亿日元以望拉动经济——其实，日本政府发行的政府债券数量繁多，政府信用级别面临很大的风险。可这一切都无济于事，通货紧缩仍不见好转。如此看来，这最后一招就剩下让日元贬值了。去年12月份，日元对美元比率下降了7％，本月更是跌至133．44，是39个月来的最低谷，致使大家都怀疑日元贬值是日本政府早已制定的政策。 日本面临的经济问题着实严重。目前，日经股指仅有1989年高峰期的四分之一强。过去一年，日本经济持续衰退，预计今年国民收入将再次减少。工业产品到去年11月份已萎缩13％，消费物价指数自1999年以来一直下跌，预计今年将继续下降。二十世纪七、八十年代，通货膨胀似乎是唯一严重的问题。但通货紧缩也带来了自身的问题。比如，消费者知道明天自己的钱会更值钱，就会持币不花；需求下降。公司临时解雇工人，这使消费者花钱愈发小心翼翼，而需求进一步下降。日本政府还面临着另外两个问题，实质利率(即扣除通货膨胀率后的实际回报率)变得很高，同时通货紧缩使本已沉重的债务负担更重了。 日本的失业率已高达5．5％，到了历史最高水平。另外，据信全国还有很多隐性的失业人数，而日本政府所采用的措施收效甚微。日本消费者已表示不愿意再多花一分钱，这使日本的储蓄率高居全球之首。
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