首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
admin
2022-06-24
60
问题
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there for some time, yet no one heeded them. Exactly 10 years ago, a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) failed to convince investors that it could repay its debts, thereby bringing the world to the brink of a similar "liquidity crisis" to the one we now see. Disaster was averted then only because regulators managed to put together a multi-billion-dollar bailout package.
LTCM’s collapse was particularly notable because its founders had set great store by their use of statistical models designed to keep tabs on the risks inherent in their investments. Its fall should have been a wake-up call to banks and their regulatory supervisors that the models were not working as well as hoped—in particular that they were ignoring the risks of extreme events and the connections that send such events reverberating around the financial system. Instead, they carried on using them.
Now that disaster has struck again, some financial risk modelers—the "quants" who have wielded so much influence over modern banking—are saying they know where the gaps in their knowledge are and are promising to fill them. Should we trust them?
Their track record does not inspire confidence. Statistical models have proved almost useless at predicting the killer risks for individual banks, and worse than useless when it comes to risks to the financial system as a whole. The models encouraged bankers to think they were playing a high-stakes card game, when what they were actually doing was more akin to lining up a row of dominoes.
How could so many smart people have gotten it so wrong? One reason is that their faith in their model’s predictive power led them to ignore what was happening in the real world. Finance offers enormous scope for
dissembling
: almost any failure can be explained away by a judicious choice of language and data. When investors do not behave like the self-interested homo economics that economists suppose them to be, they are described as being "irrationally exuberant" or blinded by panic. An alternative view—that investors are reacting logically in the face of uncertainty—is rarely considered. Similarly, extreme events are described as happening only "once in a century"—even though there is insufficient data on which to base such an assessment.
The quants’ models might successfully predict the movement of markets most of the time, but the bankers who rely on them have failed to realize that the occasions on which the markets deviate from normality are much more important than those when they comply. The events of the past year have driven this home in a spectacular fashion: by some estimates, the banking industry has lost more money in the current crisis than it has made in its entire history.
What happened a decade ago in the financial world
选项
A、was a predictor of today’s situation.
B、has, as a matter of fact, repeated itself.
C、resulted from investors’ ignorance of potential dangers.
D、showed the necessity of government intervention.
答案
A
解析
根据第三段中第一句中“Now that disaster has struck again”,说明这一济灾难在人们的预料之内,说明是对今天金融界的一个预知,故选A。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/7bPd777K
本试题收录于:
公共英语五级笔试题库公共英语(PETS)分类
0
公共英语五级笔试
公共英语(PETS)
相关试题推荐
Inthepasttherewasno"directed"research______.Howisthesituationlikelytoaffectthefutureofscience?
InBritain,theHouseofCommonsisarepresentativeassemblyelectedbyvotersorelectorsthroughageneralelectionandby-el
Manygrownpeoplenowbelievethat______.Manyhousewivesgobacktoschoolinorderto______.
Youhavereadanarticleinanewspaperwhichstates,"Collegeeducationisofgreaterbenefittotheindividualtitantotheso
______indicatesthatEcoiswellacclaimedacrosstheworld?______suggeststhatthebookisquiteaccessibleforthosewholov
Daydreamingisahealthyandnaturalactofthehumanpsyche,accordingtoAmericanHealthmagazine.Likedreamsduringsleep,d
WhathasbecomeabigissueforeducatorsinAmericanschoolsbetweenthesexes?
Inthefollowingarticlesomeparagraphshavebeenremoved.ForQuestions66~70,choosethemostsuitableparagraphfromthelist
Throughouthistorytherehavebeenmanyunusualtaxesleviedonsuchthingsashats,beds,baths,marriages,andfunerals.Atonetim
AlthoughsocialchangesintheUnitedStateswerebeingwroughtthroughoutmostofthenineteenthcentury,publicawarenessoft
随机试题
引起LDH升高的原因不包括
子宫脱垂的中医辨证多是
患者失眠,健忘,心悸,自汗出。治疗应选用( )。
根据商标法的规定,许多标志都是不能作为商标注册或者使用,但是除此之外,还有一些情形也不能获准注册。以下哪种情况不属于此种情形?()
甲急需20万元从事养殖,向农村信用社贷款时被信用社主任乙告知,一个身份证只能贷款5万元,再借几个身份证可多贷。甲用自己的名义贷款5万元,另借用4个身份证贷款20万元,但由于经营不善,不能归还本息。关于本案,下列哪一选项是正确的?(2016/2/14)
三铰拱上作用有大小相等,转向相反的二力偶,其力偶矩大小为M,如图4—1—18所示。略去自重,则支座A的约束力大小为()。[2010年真题]
下列各项中,应作为“管理费用”科目进行核算的是()。
下列说法正确的是()。
结合实际,论述我国法律监督的现实意义。要求:观点明确,说理充分,条理清晰,语言规范、流畅。(2009年综合课论述第70题)
Pentium微处理器采用了超标量体系结构。Pentium4微处理器的指令流水线有【 】条。
最新回复
(
0
)