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  3. Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brake

Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brake

admin2010-08-21  40
问题     Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy.
    Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast of about late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to Its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5 % in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage below the rate predicted at the end of the last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
    Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, esp. America’s, have little productive slack.  America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate has fallen below most
    Why has inflation proved so wild7 The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.  
The passage suggests that ______.
选项 A、the previous economic models are still applicable
B、an extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation
C、a high unemployment rate will result from inflation
D、interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy
答案B
解析 意义推断题。第一段末谈到“And there are long，variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy”，由此排除选项D。最后一段说“since conventional measures suggest that both economies，esp．America’s，have little productive slack”，意思就是讲过去传统的方法对某些经济预测不管用了，由此可以看出选项A不对。再看文末“both economies，esp．America’s，have little productive slack．America’s capacity utilization，for example，hit historically high levels earlier this year，and its jobless rate has fallen below most”，美国经济通胀率低，生产萧条状况少，生产能力极大发挥，失业率降到最高水平以下，由此可以反向推断，失业率高，经济通胀率就会低；失业率低，经济通胀率就会高。因而正确答案为B项。
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