2. 外语
  3. The following appeared as part of an article in a Dillton newspaper. "In an effort to bring new jobs to Dillton and stimulate th

The following appeared as part of an article in a Dillton newspaper. "In an effort to bring new jobs to Dillton and stimulate th

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问题 The following appeared as part of an article in a Dillton newspaper.
"In an effort to bring new jobs to Dillton and stimulate the city’s flagging economy, Dillton’s city council voted last year to lower the city’s corporate tax rate by 15 percent; at the same time, the city began offering generous relocation grants to any company that would move to Dillton. Since these changes went into effect, two new factories have opened in Dillton. Although the two factories employ more than 1,000 people, the unemployment rate in Dillton remains unchanged. The only clear explanation for this is that the new factories are staffed with out-of-town workers rather than Dillton residents."
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
选项
答案 In this article in a Dillton newspaper, the author concludes that the two new factories, which recently moved to Dillton where the city began offering generous relocation grants, must be staffed with out-of-town workers instead of Dillton residents. He/She arrives at his/her conclusion from Dillton’s unchanged unemployment rate despite the fact that the factories employ more than 1,000 people. While the author’s explanation could be the reason for this, there are at least two alternative explanations that could rival the one endorsed by the author. Unfortunately, due to very limited amount of information, it is too early to state with certainty which is the most likely explanation. To begin with, the proposed explanation is related to the actual number of the unemployed. Although the two factories hire more than 1,000 employees, these newly employed may actually be Dillton residents who already have a job in Dillton. That is to say, the total number of employed and unemployed people in Dillton remains the same. The reason for this migration within the labor force could be that those positions require highly skilled workers, while those who are currently unemployed in Dillton are not qualified. In this scenario, the unemployment rate would not be affected because the addition of more than 1,000 positions are accompanied by the exact same number of job vacancies elsewhere that cannot be fulfilled by the existing labor force. If we divide the labor force into the employed and unemployed population, the abovementioned scenario indicates internal turnover within the employed population without any impact on either the number of the unemployed or the total work force. With this definition at hand, a second possibility emerges: the 1,000 new jobs were accompanied by a reduction of 1,000 jobs elsewhere, possibly due to fierce market competition brought by the advent of the new factories. Hence there is an exchange between the employed pool and the unemployed population, but the net effect on employment rate is nil. Finally, another possible explanation originates from the fluctuation of total population, and specifically speaking, the total size of the work force. While in pure theory the new factories could incorporate more than 1,000 new employees from the unemployed population, the change in the total size of work force is capable of offsetting this increase. For argument’s sake, let’s suppose that the city’s unemployment rate is 50% and the total work force increased by more than 2,000, exactly twice as many as newly hired employees in the aforementioned two factories. In this case, the employment rate and thus the unemployment rate, remains unchanged. Multiple reasons for the increase in the size of the work force can be put forward, one of these being immigration from other areas in hopes of seeking better jobs. Another reason could be a large number of people in Dilton turning 20 and being considered as the member in labor force. Regardless of the specific reasons, we can achieve a steady unemployment rate by adjusting both the number of employees and the size of the labor force. To summarize, the three possibilities discussed above are alternative explanations that can challenge the one proposed by the author. However, due to a lack of critical evidence, we cannot determine which one is best until a more thorough investigation of Dillton’s job market is presented. (550 words)
解析     文章严格按照写作指令的要求，没有花太多篇幅去讨论作者的论证哪里存在问题。本文一个易错点在于过度讨论背景信息，从正文的第一句到two new factories have opened in Dillton都属于背景信息，和原文的论证没有太多关系。但我们发现有不少学生花了很大篇幅去论证这些信息是错误的，这就偏离了题目的要求。
    两个新工厂新招了1000人，但D镇的失业率保持不变→外地人占了新职位
    根据逻辑图可以看出，原文的推理结构相当简单。但如何为题目的现象找到其他解释则是难点。另外，值得注意的是，这里并没有强调原文给出的解释是错的，也没有强调我们给出的他因就比原解释更合理，全文更多是在探索可能性。
    本题的突破点在于对失业率的理解，文章从“失业率=失业人数／适业人数”这一定义出发，分别分析了“失业人数不变”和“就业人数变化但比例不变”的情况。即，造成失业率不变的可能性包括：
    1. 新工厂的确新招了1000人，但同时在其他地方又有相同的人数失业；
    2. 新工厂新招的1000人是来自被其他地方解雇的工人。
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