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  3. Extrapolating from the adage "two heads are better than one", a group of economists at the University of Iowa has learned how to

Extrapolating from the adage "two heads are better than one", a group of economists at the University of Iowa has learned how to

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问题     Extrapolating from the adage "two heads are better than one", a group of economists at the University of Iowa has learned how to turn the instincts of individuals into useful predictions of the future. So far, the researchers have tested their method by predicting the outcome of such events as the American presidential election and the number of books sold on the first day of a Harry Potter re lease. Now, they have turned their sights to influenza.
    The influenza in question is not the pandemic bird-flu-related sort that is currently a cause for concern but the quotidian bug that lays people low, particularly in winter. Even this disease is not trivial, it kills, for instance, about 36,000 people in America and possibly as many as 12,000 people in Britain every year. If outbreaks could be predicted, patients at particular risk could be vaccinated and medical personnel redeployed in anticipation. So Philip Polgreen and his colleagues wondered if they could succeed where medical science had failed, and give adequate warning of influenza outbreaks.
    America’s Centres for Disease Control(CDC) track influenza cases in the country as they hap pen. A week later, they release the data, in part by using a colour-coded map. The colours reflect the level of influenza activity in each state on a five-point scale, with yellow representing "no activity" and red representing "widespread activity".
    In their study, Dr. Polgreen and his colleagues gave 60 doctors and nurses based in Iowa 100 "flu dollars" each. The participants used these to buy and sell shares coded according to the CDC’s colours for a particular week in the future, based on how many cases they thought would occur in the state during that week. For example, if a physician saw three young children with flu symptoms in his office, he might sell any yellow shares he had for the following week and buy red ones. Conversely, if no one he saw seemed to have trouble with influenza, he might buy more yellow or green (sporadic activity) shares for each of the next few weeks.
    Over the course of the flu season from October 2004 to April 2005, 52 participants logged into the market as traders. They were able to buy and sell up to seven weeks in advance. At the end of the experiment, each flu dollar was converted into a real one and given to the participants in the form of an educational grant.
选项 A、predict the outcome of American presidential election.
B、predict the sales result of best-sellers.
C、predict future events.
D、predict diseases like influenza.
答案C
解析 事实细节题。由题干中的the University of Iowa定位至首段第一句：爱荷华大学的一组经济学家已经掌握如何将个体的本能变成对未来的有效预测。由此可知他们的研究目的是"predict future events"。第二句是对首句的展开说明，其中给出一些具体的预测实例：the American presidential election，the number of books sold及influenza，可见其他三个选项虽然是文中内容，但它们都是用以说明主题的细节内容，不能是对实验目的的概括性陈述。
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