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  3. Almost every year since the end of the financial crisis has started with rosy expectations among American forecasters, and this

Almost every year since the end of the financial crisis has started with rosy expectations among American forecasters, and this

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问题     Almost every year since the end of the financial crisis has started with rosy expectations among American forecasters, and this one is no different. Stock markets are buoyant, consumer confidence is improving, and economic seers are raising their growth forecasts for 2014. America’s S&P 500 share index is at a record high, after rising 30% in 2013—the biggest annual gain in almost two decades. Powered by America, global growth of close to 4% , on a purchasing-power-parity basis, seems possible. That would be nearly a full percentage point faster than 2013, and the best showing for several years.
    Yet amid the new-year cheer, it is worth remembering that almost every year since the financial crisis upbeat expectations have been disappointed. The biggest danger this time round is the optimism itself.
    All around the rich world, things are looking better. Britain’s recovery is gathering pace. Japan’s economy seems strong enough to cope with the imminent rise in its consumption tax. Even Europe’s prospects are less dismal. But America is driving this recovery.
    America’s growth rests on strong foundations. First, house-hold and corporate balance-sheets are in good shape. Unlike Europeans, who have barely reduced their private debt, Americans have put the hangover from the financial crisis behind them. The revival in house prices is testament to that. Second, thanks to cheap energy, years of wage restraint and a relatively weak dollar, America is competitive. These two factors have combined to produce faster job growth which, along with higher share prices, suggests stronger consumer spending and higher investment ahead. Finally, the fiscal squeeze is abating. In 2013 the federal government took 1. 75% of GDP out of the economy with tax rises and spending cuts. The recently agreed budget deal will help cut the fiscal squeeze to 0. 5% of GDP this year. All these factors could boost America’s growth to around 3% in 2014, well above its trend rate.
    More spending by American firms and households will, in turn, buoy demand for goods and services from everywhere from China to Germany. America’s appetite for foreign wares is not what it once was, but its economy is so big that faster spending will push up exports around the globe. The resulting support for growth will, in turn, improve domestic confidence from Europe to Japan.
The biggest threat of this economic crisis is that______.
选项 A、financial crisis is disappointing
B、many people have lost their jobs
C、economic recovery is slow in progress
D、people’s expectations are too optimistic
答案D
解析 根据题干the biggest threat of this economic crisis我们可以定位到第二段末句：Thebiggest danger this time round is the optimism itself．其中，the biggest threat=the biggest danger。故答案就是原文中提到的“optimism itself乐观本身”。四个选项中只有[D]提到optimistic一词，故为答案。选项[A]具有一定干扰性。第二段第一句提到：almost every year since the fi—nancial crisis upbeat expectations have been disappointed．(几乎每一次经济危机之后，乐观的预期结果总是令人失望。)原文说的是“预期令人失望”，而不是选项[A]说的“经济危机令人失望”，该项是很明显的“偷换概念”。
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