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  3. Economics is all about consumption. A healthy economy is largely a result of a reasonable balance between consumption today and

Economics is all about consumption. A healthy economy is largely a result of a reasonable balance between consumption today and

admin2014-06-13  51
问题     Economics is all about consumption. A healthy economy is largely a result of a reasonable balance between consumption today and consumption deferred. To figure out what our buying behavior says about the U. S. economy’s future, my colleagues and I at NPR’s "Planet Money" went searching for as many shopping-based indicators as we could find, hoping some would unlock a hidden story about what Americans are feeling and where the country is headed.
    The results were mixed, but we did uncover some ominous signs. Lipstick sales used to go up when the economy went down, perhaps because women were searching for a cheap pick-me-up or an edge in a job interview—and sales of lipsticks are way up right now. Women’s underwear sales are down, which historically suggests intense frugality and more rough times ahead. But there are also some optimistic indicators. Sales of men’s underwear, one of Alan Greenspan’s favorite metrics for predicting growth, are also up. Sales of cheap spirits, which soared during the worst of the recession (people need an affordable way to self-medicate), have now stabilized, meaning, at the very least, that people can now afford better liquor.
    Of all the indicators we looked at, one of the most consistently accurate was Champagne sales. The amount of French Champagne that Americans consume has predicted—with nearly 90 percent accuracy— the average American income one year later. Apparently, when we pop a Champagne cork, we know that good times are ahead. Champagne sales hurtled upward twice in recent history—at the peak of the Internet bubble in 1999 and the housing bubble in 2007. These were both followed by slowdowns as fewer people found reason to celebrate.
    There are so many indicators to choose from that you could glean just about anything regarding our economic future. In fact, the most telling indicator appears to be the sheer number of indicators themselves. Americans now have so many seductive things they can buy that there are ample consumer options no matter what we feel. Partly as a result, savings—known in economics as deferred consumption—have fallen steadily for more than 30 years. The decline of the savings rate is particularly troubling because it is consistent through busts and booms. During the fast growth of the late 1990s and mid-2000s, and the dark times that followed, people have been choosing to spend more and save less than ever before. Paradoxically, this happened just as pensions have been disappearing and life spans have been increasing. It suggests that Americans are so caught up in every short-term enthusiasm or agony that they haven’t thought enough about long-term fiscal health.
    America will, most likely, need to find a more normal, sustainable level of consumption, and that’s exactly the problem. What does a reasonable balance between consumption now and consumption deferred actually look like? That’s what we need to figure out.

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答案A
解析 题干中的cheap spirits一词也出现在文章中的第二段。作者在讲了一些经济衰退的象征性指标后又提到，在调查中还发现，经济也出现了一些积极的信号(there are also some optimistic indicators)。例如，低价酒的销量会在经济形势不好的时候上升，这是因为人们需要一些方式排遣忧郁，但又没有钱去买更贵的商品，只能借低价酒消愁。但是今年的调查结果显示，低价酒的销量已经稳定下来，这至少可以说明，经济出现了一定的恢复迹象。对应的答案是[A]the American economy shows signs of recovery。
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