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  3. Much of the language used to describe monetary policy,such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes

Much of the language used to describe monetary policy,such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes

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问题     Much of the language used to describe monetary policy,such as "steering the economy to a soft landing" or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long,variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
    Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact,it fell to 2.6%in August, and is expected to average only about 3%for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
    Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies,and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5. 6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
    Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
The text suggests that______.
选项 A、the previous economic models are still applicable
B、an extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation
C、a high unemployment rate will result from inflation
D、interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy
答案B
解析 推论题。极低的失业率会导致通货膨胀。根据文中第四段的线索：当失业率(如在美国8月份已达到5．6％)低于自然失业率估计数字，这在过去就会导致通货迅速上升。换言之，失业率越低，通货膨胀越高。选项[A]意为：以前的经济模式现在仍然适用，这不符合文章的中心思想。选项[C]意为：高失业率源于通货膨胀。这也不对，与第四段内容相反。选项[D]意为：利率对经济有直接影响。文中无直接说明，所以也不是正确答案。
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