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  3. But if part of the national purpose is to reduce and contain unemployment, arithmetic is not e-nough. We must know which of the

But if part of the national purpose is to reduce and contain unemployment, arithmetic is not e-nough. We must know which of the

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问题     But if part of the national purpose is to reduce and contain unemployment, arithmetic is not e-nough. We must know which of the basic factors we can control and which we wish to control. Unemployment would have risen more slowly or fallen more rapidly if productivity had increased more slowly, or the labor force had increased more slowly, or the hours of work had fallen more steeply, or total output had grown more rapidly. These are not independent factors however, and a change in any of them might have caused changes in the others.
    A society can choose to reduce the growth of productivity, and it can probably find ways to frustrate its own creativity. However, while a reduction in the growth of productivity at the expense of potential output might result in higher employment in the short run, the long-run effect on the national interest would be disastrous. We must also give consideration to the fact that hidden beneath national averages is continuous movement into, out of, between, and within labor markets. For example, 15 years ago, the average number of persons in the labor force was 74 million, with about 70 million employed and 3. 9 million unemployed. Yet 14 million experienced some term of unemployment in that year. Some were new entrants to the labor force, others were laid off temporarily. The remainder were those who were permanently or indefinitely severed (断绝) from their jobs. Thus, the average number of unemployed during a year understates the actual volume of involuntary displacement that actually occurs.
    High unemployment is not an inevitable result of the pace of technological change, but the consequence of passive public policy. We can anticipate a moderate increase in the labor force accompanied by a slow and irregular decline in hours of work. It follows that the output of the economy— and the aggregate demand to buy it—must grow in excess of 4 percent a year just to prevent the unemployment rate from rising, and even greater if the unemployment rate is to fall further. Yet our e-conomy has seldom, if ever, grown at a rate faster than 3. 5 percent for any extended length of time.
    We have no cause for complacency. Positive fiscal, monetary, and manpower policies will be needed in the future.
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答案 但是如果政府的目的之一是降低和控制失业率，那么仅仅做些数字统计是远远不够的。我们必须清楚什么基本因素我们能够控制，而我们又想要控制些什么。如果生产力增长、劳动力人数增长比目前更缓慢、或平均劳动时间缩减更多或总产出的增长更迅速，那么，失业率预计将比目前增长更缓慢(或下降更为迅速)。不过这些因素并不是独立存在的，其中任何一个因素的变化都可能引起其他因素的变化。 一个社会可能通过包括抑制劳动生产率的增长在内的多种途径，来削减自己的创造能力。这种方法不惜以潜在产出为代价来降低劳动生产率，虽然短期内会带来更高的就业率，但是从长远的影响上来看，这对于国家的利益而言，将是一种灾难性的做法。此外，我们还必须考虑到这样一个事实：低于国家标准的潜在因素会对劳动力市场造成持续影响。例如，在十五年前，平均劳动力人数为七千四百万人，其中大约包括七千万就业人员和三百九十万失业人员。然而，在同一年有一千四百万人经历过一段时间的失业。其中，一些是刚进入社会的新人；有些则是暂时失业的人员；其余的人则是一直处于无业状态。因而，一年内的平均失业率一定程度上揭示了这些容易被人忽视、却又确实存在的现象。 高失业率并非技术变革所带来的必然结果，而是消极的政府政策所导致的后果。我们可以预见，就业人数将逐渐增加，而工作时间将随之逐渐缩减，缩减的速度将时快时慢。因而我们可以断定：要想失业率不再攀升，年经济增长率必须超出四个百分点；如果想要失业率再降一些的话，甚至要再高出几个百分点才行。然而我们的经济增长速度很少，甚至从没有长期超过这个百分点。 所以，我们没有任何理由骄傲自满。将来我们还需要采取积极的财政、货币以及人力资源政策。
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