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  3. The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

admin2013-01-10  29
问题                 The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity
    Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, but not as rapidly. Consumer confidence is up. Banks are earning money. The stock market in April had its best month in nine years. Even Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor known for his dire (极糟糕的) economic predictions, thinks we are on the mend. Sort of.
    That’s not to say the recession is over. Roubini sees the road to recovery as a long and fluctuating one, with unemployment rising toward 12%. So don’t trade in your emergency fund for a boat. But when it comes to your investing life, it’s time to get backing to the water. And the question is: How do we ever get back the money we lost?
    It depends on what type of recovery we have. Since the market bottomed on March 9, investors have rushed into acquiring shares of financial companies, retailers and technology firms. That makes sense if you believe we will have a recovery like the ones we’ve had in recent history. Companies in those industries did well in the market rallies (恢复) that followed recessions in the 1990s and the early part of this decade. And stocks handily outperformed (胜过) bonds.
    But the current recession has been deeper and longer than the past two. "It’s a very different story today," says First Eagle’s Jean-Marie Eveillard, one of the few managers to produce positive returns when stocks plunged earlier this decade. "The landscape is different, and the recovery, when it comes, probably won’t be along the lines of what we have seen in the post-World War II period." For the past few decades, the easiest call in economics was to predict a V-shaped recession—one that bottoms and rebounds quickly, it’s basically all we’ve had. Only two of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II have lasted more than a year, and nearly all wound up with a boom. Consumers stocked up. Companies upgraded their computers. We piled into real estate. And predicting a V may be the right call a gain. With the government spending billions on economic stimulus—trillions, if you include the bank fix—a quick pullout is entirely possible. In that case, buying retailers, technology companies and financial firms makes sense.
    But at 16 months and counting, this recession looks more and more U-like—one in which a rebound takes time. That’s the picture Roubini is painting. He says no, amount of government stimulus can make us shoppers again—we have too much debt. When paychecks resume or start to grow again, lenders will get that cash, not retailers. Consumer spending made up as much as 70% of the economy before the bust. With less shopping, Roubini says, there is little chance for a quick rebound.
Which of the following shows that the recession is on the way of recovery?
选项 A、Housing prices are falling.
B、Banks are making profits.
C、Customers’ confidence is up.
D、The stock market is better than ever.
答案B
解析 事实细节题。由题干中的on the way of recovery定位到第一段，该段指出目前的经济衰退正在触底反弹，并且给出了几个表现：房市价格仍在下降，但降幅已经减缓；消费者信心在恢复；银行开始赚钱；股市在四月份经历了九年来增长幅度最大的一个月。故[B]“银行正在争取利润”与文意相符，为正确答案。[A]“房价在下降”并不是经济开始恢复的表现，“降幅减缓”才是经济开始恢复的表现，故排除；消费者信心在恢复并不意味着人们已经在消费了，这一点从最后一段罗比尼对当前形势的判断也可以得到印证，故排除[C]；股市在四月份经历了九年来涨幅最大的一个月，并不意味着股市的情况比以往任何时候都好，故排除[D]。
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