首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
admin
2022-10-25
69
问题
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there for some time, yet no one heeded them. Exactly 10 years ago, a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) failed to convince investors that it could repay its debts, thereby bringing the world to the brink of a similar "liquidity crisis" to the one we now see. Disaster was averted then only because regulators managed to put together a multi-billion-dollar bailout package.
LTCM’s collapse was particularly notable because its founders had set great store by their use of statistical models designed to keep tabs on the risks inherent in their investments. Its fall should have been a wake-up call to banks and their regulatory supervisors that the models were not working as well as hoped—in particular that they were ignoring the risks of extreme events and the connections that send such events reverberating around the financial system. Instead, they carried on using them.
Now that disaster has struck again, some financial risk modelers—the "quants" who have wielded so much influence over modern banking—are saying they know where the gaps in their knowledge are and are promising to fill them. Should we trust them?
Their track record does not inspire confidence. Statistical models have proved almost useless at predicting the killer risks for individual banks, and worse than useless when it comes to risks to the financial system as a whole. The models encouraged bankers to think they were playing a high-stakes card game, when what they were actually doing was more akin to lining up a row of dominoes.
How could so many smart people have gotten it so wrong? One reason is that their faith in their model’s predictive power led them to ignore what was happening in the real world. Finance offers enormous scope for dissembling: almost any failure can be explained away by a judicious choice of language and data. When investors do not behave like the self-interested homo economics that economists suppose them to be, they are described as being " irrationally exuberant" or blinded by panic. An alternative view—that investors are reacting logically in the face of uncertainty—is rarely considered. Similarly, extreme events are described as happening only " once in a century"—even though there is insufficient data on which to base such an assessment.
The quants’ models might successfully predict the movement of markets most of the time, but the bankers who rely on them have failed to realize that the occasions on which the markets deviate from normality are much more important than those when they comply. The events of the past year have driven this home in a spectacular fashion: by some estimates, the banking industry has lost more money in the current crisis than it has made in its entire history.
What does the word "dissembling" (para.5, line 3) mean according to the context?
选项
A、Covering up the truth.
B、Falling apart quickly.
C、Generating new ideas.
D、Predicting inaccurately.
答案
A
解析
推理题。题目问的是“根据上下文‘dissembling’这个单词的意思是什么?”根据第五段第二句“…their model’s predictive power led them to ignore what was happening in the real world. ”他们对于现实的忽视即可得出。故答案A。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/Gv0D777K
本试题收录于:
公共英语五级笔试题库公共英语(PETS)分类
0
公共英语五级笔试
公共英语(PETS)
相关试题推荐
TheWorldBank,InternationalTelecommunicationsUnion(ITU),GlobalSystemforMobileTelecommunicationsAssociation(GSMA),an
AstudyinCyberpsychology,Behavior,andSocialNetworkingsuggeststhatartificialintelligenceholdsapromisingfutureinhe
[A]Bepresent[B]Justsayit[C]Askforanopinion[D]Findthe"metoo"s[E]Name,places,things[F]S
Theworldeconomyhasrunintoabrickwall.Despitecountlesswarningsinrecentyearsabouttheneedtoaddressaloominghung
Doesthelanguagewespeakdeterminehowhealthyandrichwewillbe?NewresearchbyKeithChenofYaleBusinessSchoolsuggest
Thehorseandcarriageisthingofthepast,butloveandmarriageisstillwithusandstillcloselyinterrelated.MostAmerica
Thehorseandcarriageisthingofthepast,butloveandmarriageisstillwithusandstillcloselyinterrelated.MostAmerica
Mostworthwhilecareersrequiresomekindofspecializedtraining.Ideally,therefore,thechoiceofan【C1】________shouldbemad
A、She’slearnedalotfromtheliteratureclass.B、She’swrittensomebooksaboutworldclassics.C、She’smetsomeoftheworld’
随机试题
假设在某人群中研究发现肺癌和冠心病的死亡率分别为12/10万和161/10万;吸烟导致肺癌和冠心病的BB值分别为5.9和1.8,下列结论哪项是错误的
患者,男性,55岁,矽肺。因呼吸困难3天入院。患者曾在采矿场做采石工长达10年。那么患者所患的矽肺与其职业有关,可认定为
热轧钢筋接头应符合设计要求,当设计无规定时,钢筋与钢板的T形连接,应采用()。
下列网络计划参数中,以计划工期作为约束条件的有()。
建设工程施工活动中形成的有关工程施工管理文件,应当由()签字并加盖执业印章。
简述我国基础教育课程改革中课程评价发展的基本特点。
法律关系是一种思想关系,因为法律事实的产生以法律关系参加者的意志为转移。()
请选出正确答案。例如:女:该加油了。去机场的路上有加油站吗?男:有,你放心吧。问:男的主要是什么意思?A去机场B快到了C油是满的D有加油站√
Apersonmayhaveanideaabouthimselfthatwillpreventhimfromdoinggoodwork.Hemayhavetheideaheisnotcapableofit
Foundedin1983,themagazineincreaseditscirculationmorethandoublesincethen,anditsadvertising.
最新回复
(
0
)