首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
When Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and bestselling author, told a crowd of finance professors and economics students last spr
When Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and bestselling author, told a crowd of finance professors and economics students last spr
admin
2011-03-10
58
问题
When Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and bestselling author, told a crowd of finance professors and economics students last spring that only 10 percent of his money was invested in stocks, they gasped.
Managers might suggest anywhere from 50 to 90 percent. But 10 percent? This was heresy.
How about 0 percent?
That’s the share that investors should plow into domestic stocks, according to Ben Inker, director of asset allocation for Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO), a money-management firm with some $85 billion in assets.
Welcome to a contrarian view of today’s equity markets. A small but vocal band of heretics is calling into question not only the profit potential of stocks but also the foundation for conventional wisdom about investing. Even for those who disagree with them, their arguments serve as a reality check for the market.
Are conventional portfolios really as safe as experts say?
"Don’t be surprised that the Wall Street brokerage firms spend most of their time telling you that stocks are cheap," warns Mr. Inker. "Wall Street likes the market. It likes trading. Wall Street makes a lot more money off of trading stocks than trading bonds."
The trick is to determine your portfolio’s exposure to risk, analysts say. And that depends to a surprisingly large degree-on how diversified it is and how long you’re prepared to stay the course. These are key elements of "modern portfolio theory,", which came into being in the 1950s and eventually won its creator, Harry Markowitz, a Nobel Prize.
Essentially, portfolio theory holds that investors reap the greatest return with the least risk when they allocate their money among diverse classes of assets, hold them for the long term, and rebalance the portfolio when the various classes of assets stray too far from their original allocation.
To make it work, you need to own asset classes that don’t move in lock step, make accurate estimates of their future returns, and use a very long time horizon. A miscalculation in even one of these steps, however, can seriously hurt the prospects for reaching your ultimate goal.
"The long-term nature is the driving force of the portfolio," says Jerry Korabik, vice president of Ibbotson Associates, a Chicago-based asset allocation adviser. "All of our clients are institutions, and we develop portfolios with 10-, 20-, even 30-year time horizons."
Riding the roller coaster
Thus, investors should never try to get in and out of the market at specific times, the theory holds. Instead, they should ride the inevitable ebb and flow of prices. If they have allocated their money correctly, some portion of their portfolio will almost always be making money. By rebalancing their portfolios periodically-selling off some of the winning asset classes and buying more of the losers- they are continually buying low and selling high, at least in a relative sense.
This buy-and-hold strategy has won over hordes of investors. The average Fidelity retirement account has nearly 60 percent of its money in stocks, a recent study found. The overall average for retirement accounts: 61 percent, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Even equity allocations for college and university endowments hover around 57.1 percent, says the National Association of College and University Business Officers.
The problem is that investors sometimes have to be extraordinarily patient for the strategy to pay off. In 1981, for example, the S&P 500 Index stood at the same level it first achieved in 1965. Today, the index is about 30 percent lower than its peak in 2000. Do investors really have to put up with such long periods of losses?
Profits of impatience
No, say a small contingent of money managers. By avoiding the stock market as their primary engine for profit during the past five years, several of these managers have posted good returns.
Take the Permanent Portfolio Fund. Unlike many balanced funds, which diversify primarily between stocks and bonds, it encompasses a much wider variety of assets: 20 percent gold bullion and coins, 5 percent silver bullion and coins, 10 percent Swiss franc denominated assets (typically Swiss government bonds), 15 percent US and foreign real estate and natural-resource company stocks, 15 percent aggressive-growth stocks, and 35 percent in dollar assets (Treasury securities in varying maturities and also short-term, high-grade bonds).
Over the past five years, while the S&P 500 has slipped backward, the Permanent Portfolio Fund has averaged a startling 10.1 percent growth per year.
"We don’t correlate to any index because we own different assets," says the fund’s manager, Michael Cuggino. "In markets where stocks and equities are going sideways or down, we perform very well because our diversification is much broader. If equities go gangbusters like in the 90s, clearly we are going to underperform because we won’t be totally in stocks."
Indeed, the fund lagged significantly during the boom years of the 1990s, causing average annual returns for the decade to trail the S&P 500 by four percentage points.
In the last paragraph, "The fund lagged significantly during the boom years of the 1990s, causing average annual returns for the decade to trail the S&P 500 by four percentage points". We see from this sentence that______.
选项
A、the fund’s performance during the 1990s is very poor
B、the fund lost money during the 1990s
C、the fund did exceedingly well during the 1990s
D、the fund’s profits were not good enough
答案
D
解析
我们可以从最后一段的这句话中得出伺种结论?这句话意思是,在90年代美国股市一片繁荣的时期,这家投资基金收益明显地落后于其他表现较佳的基金,平均年收益率落后标准普尔500指数4个百分点。但这样的表现应当说是“欠佳”(to underperform),但未必“很糟”。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/MjYO777K
0
专业英语八级
相关试题推荐
Rabiesisanordinarilyinfectiousdiseaseofthecentralnervoussystem,causedbyavirusand,asarule,spreadchieflybydo
Youshouldnotfearspidersthankstotheirpoison.Ofallthespidersin【M1】______NorthAmerica,onlyonekindisreallyda
______isanAmericanpoetwhosegreatworkLeaven’ofGrasswritteninunconventionalmeterandrhyme,celebratestheself,deat
ThebeginningofwhatwastobecometheUnitedStateswascharacterizedbyinconsistenciesinthevaluesandbehaviorofitspop
Ofallthecomponentsofagoodnight’ssleep,dreamsseemtobeleastwithinourcontrol.Indreams,awindowopensintoaworl
NewDealwastheprogramofsocialandeconomicreformsintroducedbyPresident______.
ThefivegreattragedieswrittenbyShakespeareareRomeoandJuliet,Hamlet,Macbeth,Othelloand______.
ToproducetheupheavalintheUnitedStatesthatchangedandmodernizedthedomainofhighereducationfromthemid-1860stoth
WhyWomenAreLessLikelyThanMentoCommitSuicideItisgenerallyheldthatwomenwouldseemtoBeathigherriskforsuic
Wheneveryouseeanoldfilm,evenonemadeaslittleastenyearsago,youcannothelpbeingstruckbytheappearanceofthewo
随机试题
依照贾谊“黥劓之罪不上大夫”的说法,大臣犯有大罪,应该()
A、维生素D400IU~800IUB、维生素D5000IU~10000IUC、维生素D310万IUD、维生素D320万IUE、维生素D330万IU佝偻病初期治疗量()
主人体生殖的阴精是()
规划环境评价中拟定环境保护对策与措施时,应遵循()的原则。
在利润报表中,按利润形成的主要环节列示一些中间性利润指标,这些指标包括()。
对于保管期满但尚未结清的债权债务以及涉及其他未了事项的原始凭证不得销毁,应单独抽出另行立卷,由档案部门保管,直至事项完结为止。()
某企业自2009年3月10日领取工商营业执照后设置了账簿,用做会计核算。2010年12月份,该企业财务人员认为自身账簿核算很不规范,担心会被当地税务机关查出问题,便将开业以来的账簿及发票自行销毁。几天后被主管税务机关发现,受到严厉的惩罚。该企业设置账簿
赵某在某专利代理事务所实习,表现优异。该事务所与赵某达成约定,如果赵某当年通过了全国专利代理人资格考试,将资助其出国进修半年。根据民法通则及相关规定,在赵某参加全国专利代理人资格考试之前,下列哪些说法是正确的?
Germs(细菌)onBanknotesPeopleindifferentcountriesusedifferenttypesofmoney:yuaninChina,pesosinMexico,poundsint
TheclasshavechosenMary______monitor.
最新回复
(
0
)