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  3. The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, bu

admin2013-01-10  24
问题                 The Rebound Brings Investing Opportunity
    Here’s the not-so-bad news: We are nearing a bottom. Housing prices are falling, but not as rapidly. Consumer confidence is up. Banks are earning money. The stock market in April had its best month in nine years. Even Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor known for his dire (极糟糕的) economic predictions, thinks we are on the mend. Sort of.
    That’s not to say the recession is over. Roubini sees the road to recovery as a long and fluctuating one, with unemployment rising toward 12%. So don’t trade in your emergency fund for a boat. But when it comes to your investing life, it’s time to get backing to the water. And the question is: How do we ever get back the money we lost?
    It depends on what type of recovery we have. Since the market bottomed on March 9, investors have rushed into acquiring shares of financial companies, retailers and technology firms. That makes sense if you believe we will have a recovery like the ones we’ve had in recent history. Companies in those industries did well in the market rallies (恢复) that followed recessions in the 1990s and the early part of this decade. And stocks handily outperformed (胜过) bonds.
    But the current recession has been deeper and longer than the past two. "It’s a very different story today," says First Eagle’s Jean-Marie Eveillard, one of the few managers to produce positive returns when stocks plunged earlier this decade. "The landscape is different, and the recovery, when it comes, probably won’t be along the lines of what we have seen in the post-World War II period." For the past few decades, the easiest call in economics was to predict a V-shaped recession—one that bottoms and rebounds quickly, it’s basically all we’ve had. Only two of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II have lasted more than a year, and nearly all wound up with a boom. Consumers stocked up. Companies upgraded their computers. We piled into real estate. And predicting a V may be the right call a gain. With the government spending billions on economic stimulus—trillions, if you include the bank fix—a quick pullout is entirely possible. In that case, buying retailers, technology companies and financial firms makes sense.
    But at 16 months and counting, this recession looks more and more U-like—one in which a rebound takes time. That’s the picture Roubini is painting. He says no, amount of government stimulus can make us shoppers again—we have too much debt. When paychecks resume or start to grow again, lenders will get that cash, not retailers. Consumer spending made up as much as 70% of the economy before the bust. With less shopping, Roubini says, there is little chance for a quick rebound.
What was characteristic of the recessions in the past few decades according to the passage?
选项 A、They bottomed and rebounded quickly.
B、They didn’t last more than one year.
C、The government spent billions on stimulus.
D、People had too much debt to repay.
答案A
解析 推理判断题。由题干中的recessions in the past few decades定位到第五段，第一句话就指出，在过去的几十年中，最容易对经济做出的决策就是判定V形衰退，即迅速触底迅速反弹的衰退，[A]与文意相符，为正确答寨。第二句指出，过去的11次经济衰退中有两次持续时间超过一年，故排除[B]；第七句说在当前的形势下政府拿出了数十亿资金刺激经济复苏，并没有提到在过去的经济衰退期间政府有过同样的举动，故排除[C];[D]是在最后一段中罗比尼对此次经济衰退的一个判断，故排除。
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