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  3. Unemployment in America is high, and elections are on the horizon. It must be time to look east again for scapegoats. Japan is o

Unemployment in America is high, and elections are on the horizon. It must be time to look east again for scapegoats. Japan is o

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问题     Unemployment in America is high, and elections are on the horizon. It must be time to look east again for scapegoats. Japan is only starting to recover from its protracted recession, so China will be handed the role of economic villain in the coming U. S. election cycle. Expect to hear a chorus of presidential candidates blame unfair Chinese competition for America’ s manufacturing woes.
    China’ s trading partners do have legitimate grievances, but it would be irresponsible and inaccurate for American politicians to pin the United States’ economic sluggishness on scheming culprits in Beijing. Traveling in Asia in October, Treasury Secretary John Snow heeded political pressures back home in exhorting Chinese leaders to let the market price their currency. This is a desirable outcome in the long run, but a raft of immediate caveats come to mind.
    China’ s financial system remains fragile, and sudden currency volatility could lead to a banking crisis that could sell disaster for the world economy. Washington would do better to urge China’ s leaders to focus on their lack of preparation to assume their proper role in the world’ s financial order, rather than to demand any supposedly quick fix. Moreover, China’ s refusal to devalue its currency in the aftermath of the late 1990’ s crises in East Asia—much appreciated by its neighbors and Washington at a time when the yuan seemed overvalued—adds credence to Beijing’ s insistence that it prizes stability when it comes to exchange rates, not short-term advantage. With most economists concerned that China’ s robust growth could fuel inflation and a speculative bubble, there are valid reasons for Beijing to fear a surging currency.
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答案 目前美国的失业率居高不下，而总统选举即将到来。现在到东半球去找替罪羊正是时候。日本经历了长期的经济衰退才刚开始恢复，所以在即将到来的美国大选中，中国将被迫扮演经济上的反面角色。想必肯定能听到总统候选人们异口同声地将美国制造业面临的困境归罪于中国的不公平竞争。 中国的贸易伙伴觉得吃亏是可以理解的，但是美国政客将美国经济萧条归罪于北京的诡计多端，那是不负责任的也是不对的。十月，财政部长约翰?斯诺在亚洲访问时，鉴于美国国内的政治压力，敦促中国领导人让市场来决定人民币的价格。长期来看，人民币价格能自由浮动当然是最理想的结果，然而要留心许多其他迫在眉睫的问题。 中国的金融体系仍比较脆弱，如果一下子让货币自由波动，会导致银行业危机，将给整个世界经济带来一场灾难。美国政府应促使中国领导人意识到中国要在世界金融体系中发挥应有的作用还缺乏必要的准备工作，而不应该要求中国立刻采取所谓的应急措施。此外，20世纪90年代后期东亚金融危机发生之后，中国坚决不让人民币贬值，而当时人民币价格似乎已经被高估了，中国因此深受其邻国和美国的褒扬。这让人更加相信北京在外汇问题上一贯看重的是稳定而并非短期利益。大多数经济学家都担心中国发展太快可能会导致通货膨胀和投机行为，因此北京害怕人民币急剧升值是完全有理由的。
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