首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Safe As Houses A) Home builders and buyers are feeling hesitant. Residential fixed investment has dragged back GDP growth in ea
Safe As Houses A) Home builders and buyers are feeling hesitant. Residential fixed investment has dragged back GDP growth in ea
admin
2019-10-04
37
问题
Safe As Houses
A) Home builders and buyers are feeling hesitant. Residential fixed investment has dragged back GDP growth in each of the past three quarters; in October sales of existing homes were 5.1% below their level a year before and new ones down by 12%. Since March price rises have slowed. As housing has historically have been as a canary in the coal mine for the American economy, this wooziness is worrying. But it is not yet cause for panic.
B) The wobble invites two questions. Why is it happening? And does it matter? Answering them gains importance as chatter about a possible economic slowdown gets louder. The corpse of the last yellow finch is still fresh.
C) In August of 2007 Edward Learner of the University of California, Los Angeles highlighted the predictive power of residential investment and hoe-building when forecasting downturns, in a paper called "Housing is the Business Cycle". Eight of the ten previous recessions had been preceded by serious problems in housing, he pointed out, before forecasting that "this time troubles in housing will stay in housing".
D) When identifying the causes of what is happening it is better to consider a brew of factors than any single ingredient. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, refers to five "L"s that have been pushing up builders’ costs and so constraining the pace of new home-building: labour, lots, lending, laws and lumber. Construction workers are scarce, and are therefore seeing faster wage increases than the general workforce. These burdens might not matter so much if the sector were managing to squeeze more from its inputs. But it is struggling to do so. As a result, the incentive to build many new homes has been reduced.
E) With the possible exception of a 20% tariff on Canadian lumber, which led to a spike in prices this summer, these pressures are not new. For several years they have been to explain why building has been so slow in the face of strong demand and rising prices (aside from the hangover from over-building in the mid-2000s). Mr. Dietz says that for cheaper, entry-level homes, the fixed costs of building are most crippling, which helps to explain why their supply has been particularly squeezed.
Homebodies
F) Over the summer something else seemed to change. Aaron Terrazas, an economist at Zillow, a price-listing website, has noticed a tilt in favour of buyers. He has been less evidence of bidding wars; fewer examples of buyers waiving contingencies, such as forgoing the option to pull out of if something about the sale goes wrong; fewer multiple offers, and fewer homes that sell for very much more than their asking price. While the priciest points of the market have been chilly for a while, now the bottom end is catching a cold, too.
G) The next likely explanation is that demand is being constrained by an affordability crunch. House prices are rising nationally just as, according to Freddie Mac (a government-backed mortgage insurer), the effective rate on home loans has risen by 0.8 percentage points since 2017. As Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, pointed out, on average housing is still more affordable than it was before the financial crisis, and mortgages are still historically cheap. But in this case the change matters, and more expensive houses coupled with more expensive mortgages can still weigh on demand.
H) The buyers most vulnerable to this dynamic are young. Home-ownership rates for those under 35 collapsed following the recession, and although they have recovered a bit since 2016 they are still well below their historical average, and around seven percentage points below their pre-crisis peak. The young are the most likely to buy cheaper, entry-level homes. To buy an average starter home with a 10% down-payment, the National Association of Realtors estimates that a first-time buyer would need to fork out $1,099 per month in the third quarter of this year, $120 more than a year ago.
I) On November 14th Mr. Powell noted the sensitivity of the housing sector to interest rates, and said that he and his fellow monetary-policy makers were watching it carefully. But elsewhere the economy is doing well, particularly the labour market, which is in ruder health by the day. In a speech on November 28th Mr. Powell said that interest rates now are "just below the broad range of estimates" of neutral, the level at which they neither speed up nor slow down growth. Although investors interpreted this as a doveish statement, most still expect another interest-rate rise in December, and at least one more next year.
J) Mr. Powell did not seem too concerned about housing, noting that the sector is less of a motor for the economy than it has been in the past. Mr. Terrazas warns of overreaction to "any slight news of softness". For his part, Mr. Learner is relatively relaxed. Although he agrees that the market is cooling, there are few signs of the over-building that characterized the 2000s—if anything, the opposite. "We haven’t built up a mountain that would create a cliff," he says. Besides, in historical terms the recent dip in housing starts is small. In the four quarters preceding the peak of an economic cycle, housing starts have fallen by 22% on average. Over the past four quarters home starts have fallen by 2%.
K) Overall, recent noises from the canary sound less like a cry of distress than a chirp as the atmosphere changes. There are reasons to worry about housing. The fact that a generation is being largely shut out of one of America’s most common forms of wealth accumulation is genuinely troubling. If what is happening in housing is an early sign of a broader decline in consumer confidence, that could spell trouble. And if construction and the spending that accompanies hoe-building are not driving demand, that may leave the economy more fragile when other stimuli fade. But it is too soon to call this a crisis.
Mr. Powell and his fellow monetary-policy makers has observed closely about the relationship between the housing sector to interest rates.
选项
答案
I
解析
题干:鲍威尔和他的货币政策伙伴们密切关注着住房市场和利率之间的关系。根据题干中的关键词Mr. Powell and his fellow monetary-policy makers可定位到I段的第一句,它提到“鲍威尔和他的货币政策伙伴们在关注住房市场和利率之间的敏感关系”,与题干意思表述一致,故选I。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/Rhp7777K
0
大学英语四级
相关试题推荐
AsWhat’syourearliestchildhoodmemory?Adultsseldom【C1】______eventsmuchearlierthantheyearorsobeforeenteringschool,
A、OnSeptember1.B、OnJune3.C、Beforethenextschooltear.D、Afterfinalexam.B信息明示题。说话人两次强调学生离开的日期:Youmustvacateyourroo
A、HethoughtArtwasuseless.B、Hewasofferedajobinabigaccountingfirm.C、HewantedtogotoLondontostudyArt.D、Hewa
SentHomeforNotWearingHeels,SheIgnitedaBritishRebellionA)LONDON—WhenNicolaThorpreportedtoworkawhilebackasat
SentHomeforNotWearingHeels,SheIgnitedaBritishRebellionA)LONDON—WhenNicolaThorpreportedtoworkawhilebackasat
A、Buildingcyclepathsontheroad.B、Publicizingtheadvantagesofcycling.C、Providingfacilitiesforcyclists.D、Raisingfare
唐朝(TangDynasty)被历史学家认为是中国文明最辉煌的时期。唐朝的首都在长安。在与印度和中东(theMiddleEast)的交流中,在他们的促进下,唐朝在许多领域里得到了长足的发展。唐朝是文学和艺术的黄金时期。唐朝通过科举制度(imperia
A、Peoplecaneasilyfightwitheachother.B、Conflictswithothersbecomeinevitable.C、Americansaretooconcernedabouttheir
Althougheachbabyhasanindividualscheduleofdevelopment,generalpatternsofgrowthhavebeenobservedThreeperiodsofdev
A、Threeordersofbreadsticksforfree.B、Athree-dollardeductiononthenextpizzayouorder.C、Athree-dollarcouponforuse
随机试题
货币资金成为金融市场交易的对象。()
水泥混凝土的配合比设计步骤包括()。
斜拉桥的斜塔柱施工时,应分高度设置横撑,使其线形、应力和()满足设计要求并保证施工安全。
王某是A房地产开发公司的工程设计人员,2002年11月1日,王某执行公司分配的设计任务进行房屋工程设计,该工程设计于2002年12月10日圆满完成。根据法律规定,该著作权由王某所有,A房地产公司由于征地手续尚未办理完毕,因此,于2003年3月10日,尚未使
法院裁定受理破产申请后,下列有关各方的做法中,符合法律要求的是()。
在应收账款信用政策中企业采用现金折扣政策的目的在于()。
电子邮件地址wang@263.net中包含的信息有()。
研究人员报告说,动物脑部具有不同功能的区域占总脑量的比例是物种的一个重要特征。他们发现,在同物种中,不同个体之间的脑容量可能有明显差别,但脑部结构特征基本一致;而不同物种之间,结构特征就有较大差异。研究人员据此认为,脑部结构特征将有助于分辨不同物种间的亲缘
2009年H省年末常住人口达到7034.4万人,出生人口90.7万人,出生率为12.93‰;死亡人口45.1万人,死亡率为6.43‰;净增人口45.6万人。2009年城镇居民人均可支配收入达14718.3元。其中,工资性收入9830.6元,增长10.6
Theboarddeemediturgentthatthesefiles______rightaway.
最新回复
(
0
)