The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the Bush administration appears determined to attack Iraq. The probability of w

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问题 The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the Bush administration appears determined to attack Iraq. The probability of war could easily push the oil price back into the $ 35 ~ $ 40 a barrel range for at least a few months. In effect, that would impose a big new tax on consumer spending and corporate profits. The prospect of monetary tightening and a sharp increase in the oil price suggests that late 2002 and early 2003 could be a period of great volatility for the US economy.

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答案同样是一大风险的还有石油价格，主要原因是布什政府表现出来的攻打伊拉克的坚决态度。战争的可能性可以轻而易举地将油价推回到35-—40美元一桶，而且这一持续就会是几个月，结果将是在消费性支出和公司利润头上新加了一大笔税赋。货币紧缩政策与油价急剧攀升的前景暗示着2002年底和2003年初可能是美国经济的一大波动期。

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