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  3. A commonplace observation of weather fluctuating between a severe heat wave and a fairly cool day may be what dooms us to climat

A commonplace observation of weather fluctuating between a severe heat wave and a fairly cool day may be what dooms us to climat

admin2013-09-16  110
问题     A commonplace observation of weather fluctuating between a severe heat wave and a fairly cool day may be what dooms us to climate catastrophe, in two ways. On one side, the variability of temperatures from day to day and year to year makes it easy to miss, ignore or obscure the longer-term upward trend. On the other, even a fairly modest rise in average temperatures translates into a much higher frequency of extreme events — like the devastating drought now gripping America’s heartland — that do vast damage.
    Then how should we think about the relationship between climate change and day-to-day experience? Almost a quarter of a century ago James Hansen, the NASA scientist who did more than anyone to put climate change on the agenda, suggested the analogy of loaded dice. Imagine, he and his associates suggested, representing the probabilities of a hot, average or cold summer by historical standards as a die with two faces painted red, two white and two blue. By the early 21st century, they predicted, it would be as if four of the faces were red, one white and one blue. Hot summers would become much more frequent, but there would still be cold summers now and then. And so it has proved.
    But that’s not all: really extreme high temperatures, the kind of thing that used to happen very rarely in the past, have now become fairly common. Think of it as rolling two sixes, which happens less than 3 percent of the time with fair dice, but more often when the dice are loaded. And this rising incidence of extreme events, reflecting the same variability of weather that can obscure the reality of climate change, means that the costs of climate change aren’t a distant prospect, decades in the future. On the contrary, they’re already here, even though so far global temperatures are only about 1 degree Fahrenheit above their historical norms, a small fraction of their eventual rise if we don’t act.
    The great Midwestern drought is a case in point. This drought has already sent corn prices to their highest level ever. If it continues, it could cause a global food crisis, because the U. S. heartland is still the world’s breadbasket. And yes, the drought is linked to climate change: such events have happened before, but they’re much more likely now than they used to be. Now, maybe this drought will break in time to avoid the worst. But there will be more events like this.
    Will the current drought finally lead to serious climate action? History isn’t encouraging. The deniers will surely keep on denying, especially because conceding at this point that the science they’ve trashed was right all along would be to admit their own culpability for the looming disaster. And the public is all too likely to lose interest again the next time the dice comes up white or blue.
By the analogy of loaded dice, James Hansen intended to highlight ______.
选项 A、the strong correlation between climate change and daily experiences
B、the equal distribution of hot, average or cold weather conditions
C、the abnormal alternation between cold summers and hot ones
D、the disadvantage that climate change has already put people at
答案D
解析 第二段指出，詹姆斯.汉森就“将气候变化提上日程”做出了巨大贡献，他提出了“用灌铅的骰子类比气候变化”的建议，指出21世纪初气候骰子会出现四面红色、一面白色和一面蓝色的局面(正常的骰子理应出现红、白、蓝三色出现几率相同的局面)。段末句进一步指出该预测现已得到了，事实验证。可见，詹姆斯.汉森“灌铅的骰子”这一概念形象地向人们展示了“气候变化已经发生且在不久的未来将会更加明显(极端高温天气频繁出现)”的事实。[D]选项正确。
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