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Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven

admin2009-05-09  79
问题     Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This waveof unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology, but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.
    To anticipate developments in this field, the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey — in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996 — giving us a wealth of data and experience. We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.
    Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research, while those more than 30 or 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a 10-to 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts. It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses.
    The Forecast uses diverse methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies. Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study, and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feedback and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus, we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.
    Finally, the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach, the Forecast can produce more reliable, useful estimates.
    For our latest survey conducted in 1996, we selected 85 emerging technologies representing the most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when (or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen, and the estimated size of the economic market for it. In short, we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually " emerged. "
The job of the futurist is to
选项 A、estimate the frequency of technological developments.
B、forecast the significant technologies of the future.
C、prepare the potential market for each technology.
D、adjust the time of arrival of new technologies.
答案A
解析 该题为推理题。从最后一段第二句“we then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when(or if)each technological development would enter the mainstream，the probability that it would happen，and the estimated size of the economic market for it．”可以看出，未来学家的工作是判断每项科技发展进入主流社会的时间以及是否能够进入主流社会，在现实中出现的几率及所需经济市场大小。选项B不属于未来学家的工作范畴，而属于预测机构的工作；未来学家只是对科技所需的潜在市场做出预测，而非为其做出准备，故排除C；未来学家只是对科技发展进入主流社会的时间做出判断，而非调整, 故排除D；故选A。
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