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  3. Despite the brouhaha (骚动) over stolen e-mails from the University of East Anglia, the science of climate change is well enough e

Despite the brouhaha (骚动) over stolen e-mails from the University of East Anglia, the science of climate change is well enough e

admin2012-06-20  86
问题     Despite the brouhaha (骚动) over stolen e-mails from the University of East Anglia, the science of climate change is well enough established by now that we can move on to the essential question: what’s the damage going to be?
    The total bill, if emissions are left unchecked, could reach 20 percent of annual per capita income, says Nicholas Stern, the British economist who led an influential Whitehall-sponsored study. William Nordhaus, a Yale economist, puts his "best guess" at 2.5 percent of yearly global GDP. And according to Dutch economist Richard Tol, the economic impact of a century’s worth of climate change is "relatively small" and "comparable to the impact of one or two years of economic growth".
    These estimates aren’t just different—they’re different by an order of magnitude. And while some might dismiss the cost estimates as mere intellectual exercises, they’re intellectual exercises with real impact. The Copenhagen meeting may be a bust, but countries from the United States to China are individually considering cap-and-trade schemes, carbon taxes, and other policies aimed at curtailing greenhouse gases. To be effective, a tax or cap-and-trade charge would have to force today’s emitters to pay the true "social cost of carbon"—in other words, the amount of damage an extra ton of carbon will cause in the coming centuries.
    Figuring out what that cost is, however, is no simple task. That’s largely because most of the bill won’t come due for many decades. A ton of carbon dioxide emitted today will linger in the air for anywhere from one to five centuries. Virtually every cost study shows that, even if economic growth continues apace (快速 地) and there’s no effort to slash emissions, the damage from climate change will be negligible until at least 2075. It could take 100 years before we see noticeably negative effects, and even more before we need to launch massive construction projects to mitigate (减轻) the damage.
What can we learn about the present climate change?
选项 A、The damage is somewhat exaggerated.
B、Actions will be taken the moment people realize it.
C、Measures should be taken immediately to tackle it.
D、The negative effects will not be significant for a century.
答案D
解析 综合推断题。根据定位句可知，气候变化带来的影响至少要到2075年才会显现，而显著的负面影响在一百年之后才能够看到，更多年后我们才会发起大规模建设项目来减轻这种损欠。故D)“一个世纪中，负面影响都不会很明显”为正确答案。
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