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  3. Demography, which is about long term trends, may seem an unusual prism through which to view a global crisis sparked by financia

Demography, which is about long term trends, may seem an unusual prism through which to view a global crisis sparked by financia

admin2015-09-30  31
问题     Demography, which is about long term trends, may seem an unusual prism through which to view a global crisis sparked by financial sector bubbles. But those seeking a sustainable way out of the crisis would do well to take account of it.
    This is a crisis not only of too great expectations of asset price growth, but of too great expectations of how fast the economy of an aging world can grow, leading to massive overinvestment in everything from houses to cars.
    The global annual average growth of 5 percent in the five years ending in 2007 was bought at a high cost to the future, and a slowing growth in the workforce means expectations must be lowered further. Policies need to be shaped to demographic realities.
    Think of Japan, the world’s oldest society. Years of fiscal stimulus have had only a modest impact on growth. Infusions of yet more yen borrowed from its citizenry and from companies reluctant to reinvest their profits seem unlikely to have more than short-term impact.
    Japan’s workforce is declining and age is taking a toll both on innovation and the desire to spend.
    The only chance for global growth rates to return to previous norms is to find ways of increasing growth in those countries that have more favorable demographics.
    In theory, that might be Africa. Hut stability issues in many sub Saharan African countries suggest that the more realistic opportunities exist in South Asia, parts of Southeast Asia and the Middle East/ North Africa. Yet in some of the countries with potential Iran is a good example the politics is forbidding. In others, the financing tools or social infrastructure are inadequate.
    Still, these countries offer the most hope of compensating for demography-driven slowdowns elsewhere. A trillion or two dollars in credit for them will do more for the global economy than similar stimulus for countries with aging populations.
    As for aging countries, the crisis has clearly shown the need to raise retirement ages by five years to reflect increases in life spans to relieve the state budgets now weighed down by bank bailouts, and to reduce the burden on corporate and other pension schemes.
    In East and West alike, most people are willing and able to work longer and remain productive members of society until 70 or beyond. Few are doing so.
    Only a return to replacement-level fertility rates will provide a lasting solution. Meanwhile, the need for later retirement is urgent. This crisis underlines the necessity for developed country governments to adjust spending and social policies to demographic realities at home and abroad.
The global financial crisis might have been caused mainly by______.
选项 A、the global annual average growth of 5 percent
B、the pursuit for unreasonable economic growth rate
C、the slowing growth in workforce in an aging world
D、the unbalanced investment in everything such as houses
答案B
解析 根据第二段中的“This is a crisis not only of too—great expectations of asset price growth，butof too—great expectations of how fast the economy of an aging world can grow，…”，B应为答案。
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