首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
考研
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Pa
admin
2013-01-28
34
问题
Should the Treasury sell its economic forecasting computers for scrap? For the past two years no one outside the Conservative Party and White-hall has believed a Treasury forecast. Anyone with half an eye on the unemployment figures or with a mortgage knew that Chancellor Norman Lamont’s repeated claims about recovery being "just around the corner" were untrue.
Yet only a fortnight ago Gary Becker, an American economist, won a Nobel prize for his work on using economics to explain aspects of human behavior, such as drug addiction and crime. So why do e-conomists using Britain’s longest running predictive model still have trouble forecasting whether people will spend more or less money in the shops in the next three months? The answer is that they are caught in a race they cannot win, where however fast they try to keep their predictive equations abreast (not behind) of changing patterns in production and spending, peoples’ behavior changes faster.
Some people claim economics and econometrics should be expelled from the broad scientific church. But that would be foolish. Their present weakness is that they are only perfect when dealing with theory. Use them to make real-world forecasts and things go wrong-principally the answers. But that is typical of a young science. Until the 1930s, only economists were interested in accurately predicting the economic behavior of large numbers of people. The Depression made it a matter of wider interest and urgency. The emergence then of national income statistics helped economics and econometrics to develop. But the art in using both still lies in knowing, when you are crossing the line between prediction and guesswork.
The government seems not to recognize this. Of late it has pushed and pulled the levers of money supply, tax and interest rates like children let loose on the bridge of a ship. And politicians such as Lamont also have a hand in Treasury forecasts.
"That is the worst way to use a science" , says Becker. "If economics has any claim to be a science and to belong to the Nobel award structure—and I firmly believe that it does—then economists should avoid political propaganda and convey to the public some flavor of the scientific quality of economics. The government should stop interfering and let its specialists apply their programs, which embody years of experience, as tools to solve the problem of how to make the economy healthy".
The beginning sentence-of-the text most probably means that
选项
A、the Treasury computers are too outdated to be used in forecast
B、the Treasury is so short of funds that it should sell its computers
C、the economic prediction by the Treasury is no longer worth trusting
D、people are losing faith in the forecast of economic growth
答案
C
解析
推理题。第一段第一句话提到,财政部应该把它的经济预测电脑当做废品卖掉吗?随后指出:过去两年,除了保守党和白厅之外,没有人相信过财政部的预测。这说明:财政部的经济预测根本不能令人信服。C符合题意,为正确选项。A是该句话的字面意思,与文意不符;B属于not given类型;D则误解了该句话的意思。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/c7p4777K
0
考研英语一
相关试题推荐
Whatdoestheauthormeanby"...hasbecomeitsflip-flopper"(Para.1)?Themainconcernofthelastparagraphis______.
Whichofthefollowingistrueaccordingtothefirstparagraph?The"underconnectivitytheory"attributesautismto______.
ItisgenerallybelievedthatinappliedinvestigationSomepeoplelookdownonappliedresearchbecausetheythinkthat
Studythefollowingcartooncarefullyandwriteanessayinwhichyoushould1)describethecartoon,2)deduethepurpo
Venturecapitalhasnowbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Hereisthe(1)_____statusofeachmajorregionthathasventurecapitalac
Venturecapitalhasnowbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Hereisthe(1)_____statusofeachmajorregionthathasventurecapitalac
Venturecapitalhasnowbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Hereisthe(1)_____statusofeachmajorregionthathasventurecapitalac
Venturecapitalhasnowbecomeaglobalphenomenon.Hereisthe(1)_____statusofeachmajorregionthathasventurecapitalac
Thefactthatblindpeoplecan"see"thingsusingotherpartsoftheirbodiesapartfromtheireyesmayhelpustounderstandou
Thefactthatblindpeoplecan"see"thingsusingotherpartsoftheirbodiesapartfromtheireyesmayhelpustounderstandou
随机试题
班组经济核算可分为()大类。
A.室间隔不对称肥厚IVS/LVPW≥1.4B.以心衰为主要死亡原因C.舒张期心室压力曲线呈早期下陷,晚期高原波型D.右心室菲薄,羊皮纸样改变E.心包或心肌组织检测到病毒基因片段女性,55岁。晕厥三次入院。患者于两年来反复晕厥3
肺癌转移时常出现胸壁、乳腺的炎症可引起
A、发病前有用药史,并有一定潜伏期,突然发病,皮损形态多样,颜色鲜艳,可泛发或仅限于局部B、皮肤或黏膜接触某些外界致病物质后所引起的皮肤急性或慢性炎症反应C、皮损多是圆形或多角形的扁平丘疹,融合成片,剧烈瘙痒,搔抓后皮损肥厚,皮沟加深,皮
美国联邦主义宪法原则的理论与实践。
深化投资体制改革的目标有()。
假设当前欧元兑美元期货的价格是1.3600(即1.3600美元=1.欧元),合约大小为125000欧元,最小变动价位是0.0001点。那么当期货合约价格每跳动0.0001点时,合约价值变动()。
(a)目前国内移动电话号码采用号段分配方式分配给各个运营商。下面列出了部分号段:A.133,B一139,C一131。其中属于中国移动的号段为(1),属于中国联通的号段为(2),属于中国电信的号段为(3)。(请填写号段对应的字母)PLMN网络覆盖区
唐三彩是一种以()三色为主的彩釉陶塑工艺品及日常生活用品。
甲公司向A银行借款1000万元。乙公司受甲公司委托,与该银行签订保证合同,约定为甲公司的借款提供连带责任保证。为保障乙公司的追偿权,甲公司以自己的一处房产为乙公司提供抵押担保,双方签订抵押合同并办理了抵押登记。同时,丙公司受甲公司委托,与乙公司签订保证合同
最新回复
(
0
)