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  3. "Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man," wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th ce

"Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man," wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th ce

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问题     "Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man," wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $725 and $1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank’s current poverty line of $1.90 a day. But global income levels per person have since accelerated, from around $1,100 in 1800 to $3,600 in 1950, and over $10,000 today.
    Economists have long tried to explain this sudden surge in output. Most theories have focused on the factors driving long-term economic growth such as the quantity and productivity of labor and capital. But a new paper takes a different tack (思路): faster growth is not due to bigger booms, but to less shrinking in recessions. Stephen Broadberry of Oxford University and John Wallis of the University of Maryland have taken data for 18 countries in Europe and the New World, some from as far back as the 13th century. To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era—from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%.
    Instead, shorter and shallower slumps led to rising long-term growth. Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950. The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%.
    So why have these "growth reversals" decreased in length and depth? In another paper Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations—such as demographic change or a sectoral shift from volatile ( 不稳定的) agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully explain the shift.
    More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial courts. Before the modern era, elites would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption and the like. Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening. With populist (民粹主义的) politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought.
In Para. 3, the word "slumps" probably means________.
选项 A、booms
B、recessions
C、views
D、activities
答案B
解析 语义理解题。由题干定位到第三段第一句。上一段最后一句提到，斯蒂芬.布劳德伯利和约翰.沃利斯发现经济扩张期的增长率在近期反而是下降的，并以具体数据证明了新论文观点的前半句faster growth is not due to bigger booms。紧接着，本段以Instead开头，表明文意发生了转折，本段是在继续解释新论文观点的后半句，即but to less shrinking in recessions，并且本段第二、三句提到，产出下降年份的比例从三分之一减至12％，下降率从3％降至1．2％，这分别对应第一句中的shorter和shallower。由此可知，此处是指时间较短和程度较浅的衰退导致了长期增长率的上升，所以该词与recessions的含义最为接近，意为“衰退”，故B)为答案。
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