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  3. Write a report of 300—350 words in English, describing, comparing and analyzing the situation of the world trade, GDP and trade

Write a report of 300—350 words in English, describing, comparing and analyzing the situation of the world trade, GDP and trade

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问题 Write a report of 300—350 words in English, describing, comparing and analyzing the situation of the world trade, GDP and trade between 1990 and 2013 based on the following chart. Your writing will be assessed for language, format, structure, content and length. Write your report on the ANSWER SHEET.

Notes: the upper curve is world merchandise trade growth, the middle curve is the world GDP growth at market exchange rates, and the below curve is the trade growth/GDP growth.
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答案 It can be drawn from the figure that on the whole there exists a positive correlation between world merchandise trade growth and world GDP growth, except that the correlation is negative from 1990 to 1997, with trade growing fast while GDP growing slowly. This is probably caused by the financial crisis sweeping over most economic powers in the 1990s. Therefore, it might be concluded that world merchandise trade growth can contribute to GDP growth. Theoretically speaking, trade growth can grow faster or slower than GDP in any year, however, it is inclined to grow about twice as fast as GDP at market exchange rates. Besides, trade growth fluctuates more often than GDP growth. This probably can be explained by the fact that GDP growth is more complicated and involves more factors, including investment, consumption and so on, which are likely to counteract with each other and the increased amount can be offset by the decreased one. For the ten-year moving average of world trade growth and world GDP, it has maintained a continual increase from 1990 to 2000 and peaked at 2. 4 in 2000, with occasional slight decreases, as can be seen in the year of 1996 and 1999. Nevertheless, the ratio began to drop since 2000, reaching the lowest point of 1. 6, which is close to that in 1990, almost twenty years ago. There is a rebound in 2011 but immediately drops to 1. 7 in 2013 again. To take a look at the growth rates in recent years, the trade grows either fast or slowly cyclically, while the world GDP somehow seems to have stopped growing. It appears that world economy has run into difficulties recently, but it’s hard to say whether it is a normal cyclical phenomenon. The recent recession of world economy is taking effects on both merchandise trade growth and GDP growth. Since merchandise growth can contribute to GDP growth, one way to regain GDP growth is to maintain regular merchandise trade growth. To achieve merchandise growth, healthy and fair mechanisms should come into play.
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