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  3. "It could have been worse" was the common refrain as American banks began reporting their second-quarter earnings. Indeed, the s

"It could have been worse" was the common refrain as American banks began reporting their second-quarter earnings. Indeed, the s

admin2017-04-07  56
问题     "It could have been worse" was the common refrain as American banks began reporting their second-quarter earnings. Indeed, the striking characteristic of the returns was their consistency.【F1】Big and small, local and national, lenders across the country have been benefiting from some common tailwinds. Legal settlements are becoming sparser; the economy is expanding, albeit feebly, and the housing market is recovering; auditors are pushing banks to keep releasing loan-loss reserves; and actual losses are trivial.
    But avoiding disaster is not really cause for celebration. Consumers continue to shed debt; companies carry ever more cash. Banks’ pre-provision revenue growth is muted, and there has been no recovery in loan growth of the sort seen after previous recessions.【F2】This is so unusual that it may be unprecedented, says Michael Mayo, an analyst at CSLA, a securities firm, and it hardly suggests a good prediction for the banking system. He predicts that the current decade will show the worst revenue growth for banks since the 1930s. Pricing and margins will inevitably tighten as a result.
    In as much as borrowing activity has shifted from banks’ balance-sheets to the capital markets, some have benefited.【F3】The investment-banking arm of perpetually troubled Citigroup did well in the second quarter, as did the investment-banking arm of infrequently troubled Goldman Sachs. Underwriting and advisory revenues rose at both firms. Goldman reaped large gains from its own investments.
    But Goldman’s return on equity was still barely in double digits. Its headcount is shrinking, not expanding. That is typically the single best indicator of an investment firm’s perspective on its prospects. Citi’s return on equity was well below Goldman’s, at 6.5%. Investors will not tolerate that sort of performance for ever. A major source of Citi’s revenue is in emerging markets, where conditions are deteriorating.
    The likelihood that the overall banking environment will improve in the near future is low. 【F4】Recent rises in interest rates, prompted by expectations that the Federal Reserve will start slowing the pace of asset purchases, will take a toll on mortgage refinancing, a source of revenue that has produced a large sum of money for banks in recent years. It is probably no coincidence that share prices for most financial institutions have flattened in recent weeks.
    Regulators and politicians are still trying to suppress banks’ risk appetite, not whet it. American financial institutions are already expecting to hold more risk-weighted capital in order to conform with the international Basel 3 standards. 【F5】Worried by the potential for banks to game the calculations that support these same risk weightings, regulators this month proposed a higher "leverage ratio", a measure of capital that reflects the overall size of a bank’s balance-sheet as well as its riskiness. The proposal calls for a 5% leverage ratio at the holding-company level, and 6% at the level of the bank, for the eight largest banks; Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street and Wells Fargo.
【F2】
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答案证券公司里昂证券的分析师迈克尔·梅奥说道，这种情况如此不同寻常，可能前所未有，而对于银行体系而言，这不大可能是个好兆头。
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