On what aspect of weather forecasting does the conversation focus?

W: We’d better be looking for sales on down jackets and thermo underwear. It’s going to be really cold this winter.
M: Well, you didn’t expect it to be warm, did you?
W: Of course not, but I just heard the national weather services prediction for the next 90 days. They said it’s supposed to be much colder than usual.
M: Yeah, maybe. Personally, I think those long-range forecasts are useless.
W: Not as useless as you think.
M: Oh, come on, when you’re talking about what’s going to happen three months later, you might as well just pick a fore cast out of our hat.
W: Well, you are half way right, They arch’t very good for precipitation. But they are a lot better for temperatures, especially for this time of the year.
M: Really, so I should take them seriously about the cold but not count too much on a lot of extra snow?
W: Ahha.
M: But what did you say about this time. of the year. Do some seasons really give them more problems in making forecast.
W: Autumn is the worse, apparently, weather patterns change so much then. Just think how variable our weather has been the last three month.
M: Come to think of it. That’s true. It probably would have been hard to predict all those changes back in the summer. You know, you’ re beginning to convince me there is more to forecasting than I thought, How come you know so much about it?
W: I get my information from an expert. My sister is a meterologist.