2. 考研
  3. 我国人口老龄化对经济增长的潜在影响 理论研究认为，老龄化会减少劳动力供给，降低社会储蓄率，导致产出和资本形成能力下降，最终影响经济增长。同时，发达国家的实际表明，随着人口老龄化，养老费用及人均医疗费用均会大幅上升，加重政府财政负担。 与发达

我国人口老龄化对经济增长的潜在影响 理论研究认为，老龄化会减少劳动力供给，降低社会储蓄率，导致产出和资本形成能力下降，最终影响经济增长。同时，发达国家的实际表明，随着人口老龄化，养老费用及人均医疗费用均会大幅上升，加重政府财政负担。 与发达

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问题     我国人口老龄化对经济增长的潜在影响
    理论研究认为，老龄化会减少劳动力供给，降低社会储蓄率，导致产出和资本形成能力下降，最终影响经济增长。同时，发达国家的实际表明，随着人口老龄化，养老费用及人均医疗费用均会大幅上升，加重政府财政负担。
    与发达国家“富老同步”或者“先富后老”相比，我国人均收入水平仍然较低，属于明显的“未富先老”，对经济增长的影响日益明显。一是未来劳动力供给减少和成本上升，将不利于企业尤其是劳动密集型企业发展。二是老年抚养比率上升将影响居民储蓄数量和储蓄倾向，并通过降低企业利润间接影响企业储蓄行为。储蓄下降将减少投资资金来源，并影响资金价格。三是加重财政支出负担。与发达国家相比，我国社会保障水平较低，养老保险和医疗保险面临资金紧张、覆盖面窄等问题，许多地方存在养老金缺口。随着我国社会保障体系逐渐完善，养老金水平不断提高，医疗保障覆盖面扩大，未来老龄化所带来的财政支出将大幅增长，财政压力随之增大。
    人口老龄化将是我国需要面对的一个长期问题，应加快采取相关应对措施，继续推进新型城镇化建设和区域经济协调发展，进一步推动农村剩余劳动力的转移和就业。加大人力资本投入，提高劳动者素质。大力促进科技创新，实现产业结构优化升级，通过技术进步来弥补劳动力优势的逐步丧失。加快健全社会保障体系，继续扩大养老保险和医疗保险覆盖面，逐步提高社会保障水平。
选项
答案 The Potential Impact of China’s Aging Population on Its Economic Growth Theoretical studies suggest that aging population will reduce labor supply, reduce the social saving rate, result in reduced output and capital formation, and ultimately affect economic growth. In the meantime, the experiences of developed countries show that with aging population, expenditure for the elder and per capital health care will rise sharply, adding to the fiscal burden. Compared with "synchronization of getting rich and becoming an aged society" or "becoming a rich society before getting older" , China’s per capita income is still relatively low, and China’s situation belongs to "becoming an aged society before getting rich" , and its impact on economic growth is increasingly evident. First, in the future, declining labor supply and rising labor cost will have a negative impact on the corporate sector, especially on labor-intensive enterprises. Second, the rising elder dependency ratio will affect households’ saving amount and the propensity to save, and indirectly affect corporate saving behaviors by depressing corporate profits. The decline in savings will reduce the source of investment funds, and in turn affect the price of funds. Third, aging population will add to fiscal burden. Compared with developed countries, China’s social security level is relatively low; both the pension funds and medical insurance system face the problems of insufficient funding and inadequate coverage, and there are shortfalls in many localities. As China’s social security system gradually improves, the level of pensions continues to rise, and the health insurance coverage expands, in the future fiscal expenditures resulting from aging population will grow rapidly , adding to the increasing fiscal pressures. Since population aging is a long-term issue in China, measures should be taken continuously to promote urbanization and balanced regional economic development, and to facilitate the transfer and reemployment of surplus labor in the rural area. Furthermore the following measures should be taken: increase human capital input, and improve labor quality; vigorously promote technological innovation and upgrade industrial structure to offset the gradual loss of labor advantage via technological progress; accelerate the building of the social security system, and continue to expand the coverage of pension funds and medical insurances to gradually upgrade the social security level.
解析
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