首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Chinese Economy The size of the Chinese economy is likely to climb, in world rankings, from its current position as the sixt
Chinese Economy The size of the Chinese economy is likely to climb, in world rankings, from its current position as the sixt
admin
2010-04-30
45
问题
Chinese Economy
The size of the Chinese economy is likely to climb, in world rankings, from its current position as the sixth largest to the second largest by 2030, said economists with global investment bank Lehman Brothers.
With its gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an annual rate of 6 per cent, China will come in after the United States to secure the second place spot, the economists said.
Such an economy stands to offer exciting business and capital market opportunities to foreigners over the next 10 years or so, said Robert Subbaraman, a Lehman Brothers senior economist who is the co-author of a newly released comprehensive report on China’s economic, political, social and foreign policy prospects over the next 10 years.
At a press conference last week in Beijing, Subbaraman and his colleagues offered detailed explanations of their forecasts regarding the impact of the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), growth opportunities and how to do business in China.
WTO Impact
China’s economy will be disrupted in the short term, but in the long run, it can benefit immensely from its WTO entry, said Subbaraman.
Rising numbers of bankruptcies and displaced workers are likely, as increased trade competition after the WTO forces a reallocation of resources away from protected and less competitive industries to sectors where China has more of a comparative advantage, he said.
According to the International Monetary Fund, WTO accession will subtract 0.3 per cent from China’s real GDP growth in the first year.
Subbaraman said potential losers from the accession include the highly protected agricultural, telecommunications and banking sectors and some of the more capital-intensive ones such as the auto industry.
Besides short-term adjustment costs, WTO accession will have a profound effect on the composition of China’s balance of payments, he said.
The reduction in trade barriers will lead to a substantial increase in merchandise imports but only a modest rise in exports.
Furthermore, WTO entry will help spur the development of the legal and regulatory framework and accelerate reform in the bank and enterprise sectors, thus creating demand for foreign services — financial, accounting, management consultancy and legal — to support restructuring.
As a result, the current account surplus of US $ 20.5 billion in 2000 is likely to decrease and could sink into a small deficit by 2003, Subbaraman said in his report.
However, the decrease in Chinas s current account should be more than offset by an improvement in the capital account, noted Paul Sheard, chief economist for Lehman Brothers Asia.
The liberalization of China’s services sector should attract stronger FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows, while measures to strengthen the rule of law and to broaden and deepen the bond and equity markets should help deter portfolio capital flight.
"On our estimates, actual FDI will soar from US $ 46. 8 billion today to a round US $ 65 billion by the end of 2003,” he said, adding that China’s overall balance of payments surplus is expected to increase steadily in the coming years.
"This means that the tendency for the RMB will be to appreciate once China begins to move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime," he said.
In the long run, WTO entry is expected to add around 1.3 per cent per annum to China’s GDP growth, he added.
"We are optimistic that China will achieve an average 6 per cent growth over the next two decades," he said at the press conference.
Business Bible
In the report, Subbaraman said the answer to the question: "Should we be there? is a cautious "yes” for multinational investors with a global foothold.
On one hand, China is steadily moving towards a market-based economy and its recent WTO entry will accelerate this, he said.
Furthermore, globalization and the information age have spurred the pace and momentum to dramatic levels.
On the other hand, there are risks, especially for foreign investors over the next two to three years. China’s WTO accession will result in painful adjustment costs in conjunction with unfinished financial and State-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms, as well as rapid urbanization, he said.
"But our near-term assessment is that, provided macroeconomic policies remain accommodative, the economy will weather this difficult period, very likely averaging GDP growth of around 7 per cent," added Subbaraman.
He said there is hardly any fixed formula for success in China, but foreign investors need to pay attention to several points:
The China Context: China’s history, culture and present situation make it a unique heterogeneous(不同种类的) environment, which will bear heavily on commerce and should not be ignored.
The profit Motive: Chinese understand the profit motive. So once a foreign investor establishes an apparent willingness to bear a loss, it can prove remarkably difficult to turn that stance around and into profit.
Building From the Bottom: There is no place for firms looking to get in, make a quick killing and get out again. The best returns are going to be made by those firms that are prepared to invest real time and effort in China.
"And keep in mind that significant amounts of both will likely be necessary to identify and then establish an initial niche? said Subbaraman.
Inevitable Slowdowns: Like that of any economy, China’s progress will not be smooth, for both cyclical and structural reasons. Firms operating in China should be prepared to put up with setbacks too, as the economy goes through lean years alongside the fat.
The global Context: China’s emergence as a major global player, both economically and politically, will inevitable bring conflicts in commercial relations.
But the overall probability is that, for the foreseeable future at least, these will be contained and defused without long-time negative impact on firms prepared to ride out the equals.
______ imports will increase considerably owing to the decrease in trade barriers.
选项
答案
Merchandise
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/ktOK777K
0
大学英语六级
相关试题推荐
Brushingandflossingcansurelykeepyourteethandgumshealthy.Youngpeoplearemorelikelytohavetoothdecaywhileolder
Wecanlearnfromthefirstparagraphthatlaughter______.Accordingtothepassage,asenseofhumor______.
Theconceptofpersonalchoiceconcerninghealthisimportantbecause______.Whatdoes"liveacompletelysedentarylifestyle"
OnlytwomajorAmericanfilmforms—theslapstickcomedyandthewestern—withstoodtheeffectsofforeigninfluencesthroughoutt
ScientistshavelongbelievedonewaytostoptheEarth’satmospherefromwarmingisbyplantingmoretrees.Theideaisthatmo
A、Bywayofbroadcasts.B、BywayofTV.C、Bywayoffilm.D、Bywayofnewspaper.BHowhasthepopularityoffootballincreased?
Cheeseisperhapsthefirstfoodtobemanufacturedthatiscurrentlyconsumedbyhumans.Theoldestwrittenrecordshaverefere
Asrecentlyasthirtyyearsago,manyAmericansbelievedthatusingcreditwasanunwiseand(36)______waytopayforwhatthey
Ahearingtestthatanalysesbrainwavesforsubconsciousresponsestosoundhasrecentlybeendevisedbyateamofspecialists
A、It’srunbythegovernment.B、Itappealstomostpeople.C、Itoffersmuchchoice.D、It’samonopoly.DWhatdoesthemansayab
随机试题
麻黄碱短期内用药数次后效应降低,称为
患者的心理需要包括
保险合同的形式主要有投保单、()。
针对原有建筑,应该补充和完善建筑工程档案的情况有()。
建筑工程一切险是承保各类工程民用、工业和公共事业建筑项目,在建筑过程中因()而引起的损失。
投资者向证券经纪商下达买进或卖出证券的指令,称为()。
A公司主要从事纺织品的生产,于2011年6月在上海证券交易所上市,无任何子公司,其控股股东为B公司。持股比例为35%。2015年,由于国内纺织品行业不景气,A公司经营情况每况愈下,面临财务困难。甲公司为国内规模较大的服装企业,自2015年初即开始与A公司进
20世纪50年代,在外国专家的指导下,我国修建了兰新铁路。兰新铁路在新疆吐鲁番附近的线路如下图所示。读图,完成以下题。后来,我国专家认为,兰新铁路在该区域的选线不合理,理由可能是()。
近些年来,文化作为软实力已普遍成为共识,文化搭台,经济唱戏已越来越发挥巨大的魅力。但是历史文化与现实经济一定要________好,两者要________。填入划横线部分最恰当的一项是:
EasyLearningStudentsshouldbejealous.Notonlydobabiesgettodozetheirdaysaway,butthey’vealsomasteredthefine
最新回复
(
0
)