首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
The recent surge in oil prices to roughly $55 a barrel teaches some useful lessons. One is that surprises happen. A year ago fut
The recent surge in oil prices to roughly $55 a barrel teaches some useful lessons. One is that surprises happen. A year ago fut
admin
2011-02-11
16
问题
The recent surge in oil prices to roughly $55 a barrel teaches some useful lessons. One is that surprises happen. A year ago futures contracts predicted today’s price would be $25. A second is that the economy has grown less vulnerable to oil "shocks". Compared with 1973, we now use almost 50 percent less energy for each dollar of output. New industries (software, theme parks) need less than the old (steel, chemicals). But the largest lesson is depressingly familiar. Americans won’t think realistically about oil. We consider cheap fuel a birthright, and when we don’t get it, we whine—rather than ask why or what we should do.
If prices rise, we blame a conspiracy of greedy oil companies, OPEC or someone. The reality is usually messier. Energy economist Philip Verleger Jr. attributes the present price run-up to massive miscalculation. Oil companies and OPEC underestimated global demand, particularly from China. Since 2001 China’s oil use has jumped 36 percent. This error led OPEC and companies to underinvest in new production capacity, he says. In 2002 the world had 5 million barrels a day of surplus production capacity; now it has little. Unexpected supply interruptions (sabotage in Iraq, civil war in Nigeria) boost prices.
Verleger says prices could go to $60 next year or even $80 if adverse supply conditions persist. No one really knows. Analyst Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank thinks prices may retreat to the low $30s in 2005. A slowing Chinese economy could weaken demand. But the uncertainties cannot obscure two stubborn realities. First, world oil production can’t rise forever; dwindling reserves will someday cause declines. And, second, barring miraculous discoveries, more will come from unstable regions—especially the Middle East.
We need to face these realities; neither George Bush nor John Kerry does. Their energy plans are rival fantasies. Kerry pledges to make us "independent" of Middle East oil, mainly through conservation and an emphasis on "renewable" fuels (biomass, solar, wind). Richard Nixon was the first president to promise energy "independence". It couldn’t happen then— and can’t now. The United States imports about 60 percent of its oil. A fifth of imports come from the Persian Gulf. Even if we eliminated Persian Gulf imports, we’d still be vulnerable. Oil scarcities and prices are transmitted worldwide. The global economy—on which we depend—remains hugely in need of Persian Gulf oil.
Bushes pitch is that we can produce our way out of trouble. No such luck. Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, with possible reserves of 10 billion barrels, might provide 1 million barrels a day, or 5 percent of present U.S. demand. Fine. But the practical effect would be to offset some drop in production elsewhere. American oil output peaked in 1970; it’s down 34 percent since then.
A groundbreaking study from the consulting company PFC Energy illuminates our predicament. The world now uses 82 million barrels of oil a day; that’s 30 billion barrels a year. To estimate future production, the study examined historical production and discovery patterns in all the world’s oil fields. The conclusion: The world already uses about 12 billion more barrels a year than it finds. "In almost every mature oil basin, the world has been producing more than it’s finding for close to 20 years," says PFC’s Mike Rodgers. That can’t continue indefinitely.
The study is no doomsday exercise. Rodgers says that future discovery and recovery rates could be better—or worse than assumed. With present rates, he expects global oil supply to peak before 2020 at about 100 million barrels a day. Whatever happens, the world will probably depend more on two shaky regions., the Persian Gulf and the former Soviet Union. The Gulf now supplies a quarter of the world’s oil; PFC projects that to rise to a third in a decade.
Although the future is hazy, what we ought to do isn’t. We need to dampen oil use, expand production and if oil prices recede—significantly increase the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. These steps can’t end our vulnerability to global price surges or the effects of a catastrophic loss of oil supplies from, say, war or terrorism. But they can reduce it. Most important, Americans should curb gasoline use. The Energy Information Administration reports the following: Gasoline represents about 45 percent of U. S. oil demand; since 1991 the explosion of SUVs and light trucks has meant no gains in average fuel mileage efficiency; and over the same period, typical drivers travel almost 1,000 miles more annually.
We should be promoting fuel-efficient vehicles, particularly "hybrids". Combining gasoline and electric power, they get 20 percent to 40 percent better mileage than conventional vehicles, says David’ Greene of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. They also cost from $3,000 to $4,000 more than conventional cars, he says, mainly because they have two power sources. But Greene plausibly asserts that if production expanded, the cost gap would shrink. The way to expand demand would be to adopt a gasoline tax of $1 to $2 a gallon. Americans would know that fuel prices would stay high. They’d have reason to economize.
Of course, a fuel tax is a political showstopper. It isn’t in Bush’s or Kerry’s plan. They promote hydrogen-powered cars. These sound great but—given the technical obstacles— won’t become widespread for many years, if ever. This captures our choice: taking modestly unpleasant preventive steps; or running greater future risks by clinging to our fantasies. History favors our fantasies.
According to the passage, which of the following statements is NOT true?
选项
A、Nobody knows for sure whether oil prices will go up or down in the future.
B、China’s increasing demand led OPEC to miscalculate production capacity.
C、There has been little gains in average fuel mileage efficiency.
D、The world will depend more on the Persian Gulf in the future.
答案
B
解析
第二段提到石油涨价的原因,主要是由于石油公司和OPEC低估了全球的(包括来自中国的)石油需求,从而导致对于新增产能的投资不足而引起的。选项B的意思是:中国不断增长的需求导致OPEC错估了产量。显然,这是逻辑错误(只能说OPEC错估了中国的需求,才导致产量没有跟上,不能说产量没有跟上的根源在于中国不断增长的需求)。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/mIYO777K
0
专业英语八级
相关试题推荐
GoalTrimmerUtopiasaresupposedtobedreamsofthefuture.ButtheAmericanUtopia?Latelyit’sadreamthatwas,atwili
Mostpeoplecanrememberaphonenumberforuptothirtyseconds.Whenthisshortamountoftimeelapses,however,thenumbersa
Ordinarypeople’slivesaregovernedbyformsandnoticefromthemoment【M1】______heirbirthisregistereduntilthedayth
Crimehasitsowncycles,amagazinere-portedsomeyearsbefore.Policerecordsthat【M1】______.werestudiedforfiveyearso
NewYorkwasoncethemurdercapitaloftheworld.Thankstothezero-tolerancepolicingpolicyintroducedbyGiuliani,themean
Weneedvacations.Theyrechargeus,allowingustobemoreefficientalltheothertimes.Thetroubleis,toomanyofthevacat
ModernExaminationsIntheschoolsofancienttimes,themostimportantexaminationswerespoken.Usuallythestudentswere
ModernExaminationsIntheschoolsofancienttimes,themostimportantexaminationswerespoken.Usuallythestudentswere
A、Anhourbeforesunset.B、Anhouraftersunset.C、Anhourbeforesunrise.D、Anhouraftersunrise.B新闻中提到航天飞机于下午8点39分,也就是日落一小时后
随机试题
乙肝患者饮食方案中优质蛋白食物宜选()
财务报表的数据只来源于总账系统,并且取数要通过函数实现。()
甲公司2015年12月31日发现2014年年度多记管理费用100万元,并进行了企业所得税申报,甲公司适用企业所得税税率25%,并按净利润的10%提取法定盈余公积。假定甲公司2014年年度企业所得税申报的应纳税所得额大于零,则下列甲公司对该项重要前期差错进行
A企业是一家生产酒精的增值税一般纳税人,已经纳入农产品增值税进项税额核定扣除试点范围。企业购入的农产品主要用于以下业务:(1)购入农产品生产食用酒精。(2)将购入的农产品直接销售。(3)将购入的农产品用于企业内部食堂使用。A公司想咨询上述业务在农产
以下是一位语文教师为八年级下册《我的母亲》一课设计的学生作业,阅读并回答问题。作业:(1)课文写了母亲哪几件事?表现了母亲什么品性?(2)作者主要写母亲是他的恩师,为什么除了写母亲怎样训导之外,还用更多的笔墨写她与家人相处的情形?(3)试对作者母亲
下列属于商品的是()。
从下面四句话中找出没有语病的一句。()
我国《婚姻法》规定,法定结婚年龄男不得早于22周岁,女不得早于20周岁。这表明法律关系主体所特有的性质是()
Parentscaneasilycomedownwithanacutecaseofschizophrenia(精神分裂症)fromreadingthecontradictoryreportsaboutthestateof
A、TheattackofIslamistterrorists.B、Indonesiahadbeenonhighalert.C、FiveJakartaattackersinIndonesia.D、Allattackers
最新回复
(
0
)