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  3. China has been all over the news with August’s currency devaluation and the Shanghai Composite’s dramatic moves. Since then, inv

China has been all over the news with August’s currency devaluation and the Shanghai Composite’s dramatic moves. Since then, inv

admin2019-03-20  89
问题     China has been all over the news with August’s currency devaluation and the Shanghai Composite’s dramatic moves. Since then, investors and companies have been concerned about what exactly China means for growth prospects. Some have even attributed their weaker third-quarter numbers to it. But there’s another, largely overlooked thing financiers should keep an eye on: China wants to get its renminbi into the International Monetary Fund’s reserve-assets classification known as the special drawing rights, or the SDR. And its inclusion or exclusion could have major ramifications in the global markets. On Wednesday, Lombard Street Research hosted a conference partially dedicated to analyzing the impact of China’s liberalization on financial markets. Several speakers specifically mentioned China’s desire for the yuan’s inclusion in the SDR as a key thing to watch. Though inclusion in the basket may not immediately strike investors and casual onlookers as that important, that’s definitely not how China sees the situation, according to Diana Choyleva, Lombard Street Research’s chief economist and head of research. "The IMF is about to decide whether to include the yuan in its SDR basket," she said at the event. "As far as I’m concerned, if the yuan is accepted, and the omens are good now, this will mark the start of China’s full integration into global financial markets." But if the yuan is not allowed in the SDR, Choyleva said: "The Chinese leadership is not going to wait another five years for the West to deign to accept them. And they will not be so keen to be such a responsible global citizen. Because out of the major economies, the only currency that’s seriously overvalued is the yuan, and that’s the only one that hasn’t engaged in any major effective devaluation. [... ] If the yuan is not accepted in the SDR, they will go for a one-off large devaluation and that would then be... a financial crisis, specifically, a real-economy crisis with the resulting impact on the...markets. This may seem sort of intense for a membership that doesn’t even seem important to Western investors. For China, however, getting the renminbi into a currency basket made up of the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound could indicate recognition of the currency’s global political importance." (40% )
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答案 由于8月份人民币贬值，上证综合指数剧烈波动，中国成为全球新闻的热点。此后，投资者与企业开始关注对于经济前景，中国的真实用意是什么。一些投资者和企业甚至将第三季度数据较低归咎于此。不过，金融家还应关注一件在很大程度上被忽略了的事，那就是：中国想要将人民币纳入国际货币基金组织的储备资产类别，即特别提款权。其成功与否可能会在全球市场中产生重大后果。周三，朗伯德街研究所举行会议，会议的部分宗旨在于分析中国放宽金融市场的影响。几位发言人特别指出，中国希望将人民币纳入特别提款权很关键，需要关注。据朗伯德街研究所的负责人和首席经济学家戴安娜.乔伊利瓦所说，虽然当下投资者和观望者也许认为纳入特别提款权货币篮子并非如此重要，但中国绝不这样认为。“国际货币基金组织即将决定是否将人民币纳入特别提款权货币篮子，”她在会上表示，“就我而言，如果人民币成功纳入，这是好事，将标志着中国开始全面融入全球金融市场。”可是，如果人民币没能纳入货币篮子，乔伊利瓦说：“中国政府绝不会再等五年，等西方世界计划将其纳入。他们也将不会继续像现在一样热衷于履行其世界公民的职责。因为在所有的主要经济体中，唯一被估价过高的货币便是人民币，同时它还是唯一没有经历任何重大有效贬值的货币。”……如果人民币没能纳入特别提款权，中国将会竭力实现一次性的大幅度贬值，而那将会导致……一场金融危机，更确切地说，一场最终影响市场的实体经济危机。仅为争取这样一个在西方投资者看来似乎并不重要的成员国身份，这一切似乎有点过激。然而，对中国而言，将人民币纳入一个由美元、欧元、日元和英镑构成的货币篮子将意味着人民币的全球政治意义受到了认可。”
解析     本文选自Elena Holodny在Business Insider网站上发表的名为China Is on the Brink of a Major Milestone，and the Consequences for Global Markets Are Huge的经济评论，客观地阐述了某些经济学家对中国想要将人民币纳入特别提款权货币篮子一事及其对世界市场的影响的看法。其中的一些经济类专业术语需要考生在平时的学习中多加积累。考生应多阅读中国财经网站的一些经济评论，掌握经济类文章的表达特点，这样才能使翻译的语言更加专业、地道。
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