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  3. Scientist: A greenhouse gas, for example, carbon dioxide, forms a transparent layer that traps solar heat beneath it in the eart

Scientist: A greenhouse gas, for example, carbon dioxide, forms a transparent layer that traps solar heat beneath it in the eart

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问题 Scientist: A greenhouse gas, for example, carbon
dioxide, forms a transparent layer that traps solar heat beneath it in the earth’s atmosphere. Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are currently increasing, causing the climate to warm—an effect that is predicted by at least one computer model of the greenhouse effect. But the warming that has occurred is a great deal less than what would be expected based on the model. Therefore,_______.
Which of the following most logically completes the scientist’s argument?
选项 A、better measurements of atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are needed
B、the definition of "greenhouse gas" should probably be reconsidered
C、there are factors besides the increase in greenhouse-gas emissions contributing to the warming of the climate
D、the computer model of the greenhouse effect must be incorrect in some respect
E、the likely consequences of any warming of the climate are unlikely to be much less damaging than predicted
答案D
解析 This question requires us to choose the option that most logically completes the scientist’s argument.
The scientists argument points out that at least one computer model has predicted that the amount of warming the atmosphere would by now have experienced as a result of the greenhouse effect would be significantly greater than what has actually occurred.
Because what precedes the blank is the word therefore, we must choose the statement that is most strongly supported by the information given.
A    It is reasonable to infer from the given information that some aspect of the computer model is incorrect in some way. One way that it might be incorrect is that the measurements of atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide used are inaccurate. Nevertheless, there is not sufficient information to infer that this is the specific flaw in the model.
B    The given information provides no reason for us to reconsider the definition of "greenhouse gas." Perhaps there would be a reason to do so if no warming had occurred whatsoever. However, the information tells us that warming has in fact happened, just not as much as predicted.
C    If there are factors in addition to
greenhouse-gas emissions that lead to atmospheric warming, then presumably temperatures would have risen more than predicted, not less.
D    Correct. If the model were correct, its
predictions would be confirmed by the data regarding warming. However, this has not occurred. It is therefore reasonable to infer that, in some way, the computer model is incorrect.
E    This does not follow from the argument:
given the findings, it seems more reasonable to think that the likely consequences of any atmospheric warming would in fact be less damaging than predicted.
The correct answer is D.
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