首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method forecaster chooses
Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method forecaster chooses
admin
2014-01-28
43
问题
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar(an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past.
The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
The persistence method fails to work well when
选项
A、it is rainy.
B、it is sunny.
C、weather conditions change greatly.
D、weather conditions stay stable.
答案
C
解析
根据第二段最后一句话“However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.”可知,当每天的天气状况有很大的差别时,目前的预报方法就会失败。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/wsGd777K
本试题收录于:
职称英语理工类A级题库职称英语分类
0
职称英语理工类A级
职称英语
相关试题推荐
Youdon’tneedtocarrylargeamountsofcash;actuallyallfinancialbusinesseswillbeconductedbycomputers.
ManandComputerWhatmakespeopledifferentfromcomputerprograms?Whatisthemissingelementthatourtheoriesdon’tyet(51)
ManandComputerWhatmakespeopledifferentfromcomputerprograms?Whatisthemissingelementthatourtheoriesdon’tyet(51)
ThemethodusedbytheColumbiaUniversityresearcherscanpredictElNinoafewmonthsinadvance.Ittakesabouteightmonths
EarthquakeEveryyearearthquakesareresponsibleforalargenumberofdeathsandavastamountofdestructioninvarious
EarthquakeEveryyearearthquakesareresponsibleforalargenumberofdeathsandavastamountofdestructioninvarious
EarthquakeEveryyearearthquakesareresponsibleforalargenumberofdeathsandavastamountofdestructioninvariouspart
随机试题
下列各项中,属于双方法律行为的是()。
用红花、红曲、香豆、酱黄和青稞面烤成的锅盔和焜锅,外酥内软,香气扑鼻。它是()地区最有名的风味小吃。
如何全面认识近代中国社会的基本特点?
下列国家中,实行单一制国家形式的是()
男,40岁,无明显诱因出现浮肿,血压21/12kPa(158/90mmHg),尿蛋白(++++),24小时尿蛋白定量3.5g,血清白蛋白<30g/L,以原发性肾病综合征收住院。该病人用糖皮质激素治疗后病情缓解出院,其健康指导的主要内容不包括
患者:女性,28岁,发热、皮肤紫绀2周,胸骨无压痛、双下肢瘀斑,淋巴结及肝、脾未及,血红蛋白53g/L,白细胞2.2乘以十的九次方/L,分类中性0.24,淋巴0.75,嗜碱粒0.01,血小板2.2乘以十的九次方/L,网织红0.001,胸片显示右下肺炎
A.肝、肾、心B.肺、脾、肾C.心、脾、肾D.心、肝、肺E.心、肝、脾牡丹皮的主要归经是
特殊人群高血压的治疗A、α-受体阻断剂(α-RB)B、β-受体阻断剂(β-RB)C、噻嗪类利尿药D、醛固酮受体拮抗剂E、血管紧张素转换酶抑制剂(ACEI)适宜高血压合并糖尿病病人的药物是
城市房地产作为抵押物时,当事人( )。
A、Shehasapart-timejob.B、Shereceivedascholarship.C、Herparentspayforit.D、Sheisworkingasatouristguide.B
最新回复
(
0
)