首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
admin
2016-07-10
50
问题
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there for some time, yet no one heeded them. Exactly 10 years ago, a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM)failed to convince investors that it could repay its debts, thereby bringing the world to the brink of a similar "liquidity crisis" to the one we now see. Disaster was averted then only because regulators managed to put together a multi-billion-dollar bailout package.
LTCM’s collapse was particularly notable because its founders had set great store by their use of statistical models designed to keep tabs on the risks inherent in their investments. Its fall should have been a wake-up call to banks and their regulatory supervisors that the models were not working as well as hoped—in particular that they were ignoring the risks of extreme events and the connections that send such events reverberating around the financial system. Instead, they carried on using them.
Now that disaster has struck again, some financial risk modelers—the " quants" who have wielded so much influence over modern banking—are saying they know where the gaps in their knowledge are and are promising to fill them. Should we trust them?
Their track record does not inspire confidence. Statistical models have proved almost useless at predicting the killer risks for individual banks, and worse than useless when it comes to risks to the financial system as a whole. The models encouraged bankers to think they were playing a high-stakes card game, when what they were actually doing was more akin to lining up a row of dominoes.
How could so many smart people have gotten it so wrong? One reason is that their faith in their model’s predictive power led them to ignore what was happening in the real world. Finance offers enormous scope for dissembling: almost any failure can be explained away by a judicious choice of language and data. When investors do not behave like the self-interested homo economics that economists suppose them to be, they are described as being "irrationally exuberant" or blinded by panic. An alternative view—that investors are reacting logically in the face of uncertainty—is rarely considered. Similarly, extreme events are described as happening only "once in a century"—even though there is insufficient data on which to base such an assessment.
The quants’ models might successfully predict the movement of markets most of the time, but the bankers who rely on them have failed to realize that the occasions on which the markets deviate from normality are much more important than those when they comply. The events of the past year have driven this home in a spectacular fashion: by some estimates, the banking industry has lost more money in the current crisis than it has made in its entire history.
What does the word "dissembling"(para. 5, line 3)mean according to the context?
选项
A、Covering up the truth.
B、Falling apart quickly.
C、Generating new ideas.
D、Predicting inaccurately.
答案
A
解析
推理题。题目问的是“根据上下文‘dissembling’这个单词的意思是什么?”根据第五段第二句“…their model’s predictivepower led them to ignore what was happening in the real world.”他们对于现实的忽视即可得出。故答案A。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/xbWd777K
本试题收录于:
公共英语五级笔试题库公共英语(PETS)分类
0
公共英语五级笔试
公共英语(PETS)
相关试题推荐
Themostobviouspurposeofadvertisingistoinformtheconsumerofavailableproductsorservices.Thesecond(31)istosell
WhatiscausingglobalwarmingaccordingtoDr.Patz?
Thingsmustbegoingwellintheparcelsbusiness.Consumersandcompaniescontinuetoflockindrovestotheinternettobuyan
Thingsmustbegoingwellintheparcelsbusiness.Consumersandcompaniescontinuetoflockindrovestotheinternettobuyan
Cloningshakesusalltoourverysouls.Forhumanstoconsiderthecloningofoneanotherforcesthemalltoquestionthevery
Accordingtothisarticlethetrendtowardearlymarriages______.Youthfulexpectationsofmarriagecanbedescribedas______.
Thepassagemainlydiscusses______.Whenstemcellsspecialize,they______.
Youhavereadanarticleinanewspaperspecialcolumnwhichstates"Ourworldistoodependentonoil.Withoutoiltheworldwo
Whatisthespeakermainlydiscussing?
Besidesthefunctionsasavitalentertainmentmedium,whatelsecanpeopleuseaTVas?
随机试题
()是关于土地登记分类的正确说法。
为使沥青面层与基层结合良好,在基层上浇洒乳化沥青、煤沥青或液体沥青而形成的透入基层表面的薄层称为()。
根据《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》GB50500—2013,不能列入其他项目清单的是()。
为了帮助企业降低成本,增强出口产品在国际市场上的竞争能力,鼓励出口创汇,国家实行了由国内税务机关退还出口商品国内税的措施。根据现行规定,可以申请退税的产品有()。
证券无纸化的核心,一方面是(),成为证券权利的主要表现形式;另一方面也就意味着()。
关于我国的湖泊,下列叙述正确的是()。
宏达山钢铁公司由五个子公司组成。去年,其子公司火龙公司试行与利润挂钩的工资制度。其他子公司则维持原有的工资制度。结果,火龙公司的劳动生产率比其他子公司的平均劳动生产率高出13%。因此,在宏达山钢铁公司实行与利润挂钩的工资制度有利于提高该公司的劳动生产率。以
TheOSPFHelloprotocolperformswhichofthefollowingtasks?
在HTML文档中,标记的type属性的值为______时表示一个单选按钮。
若有以下定义和语句chars1[10]="abcd!",*s2="\n123\\";printf("%d%d\n",strlen(s1),strlen(s2));则输出结果是
最新回复
(
0
)