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  3. Energy analysts spent the first half of the year debating how expensive oil could get. Now they are asking the opposite question

Energy analysts spent the first half of the year debating how expensive oil could get. Now they are asking the opposite question

admin2010-10-28  41
问题      Energy analysts spent the first half of the year debating how expensive oil could get. Now they are asking the opposite question. On December 2nd the price of a barrel slipped below ＄ 47, the lowest  level since May 2005 and legs than a third of the peak reached in July.
    The main reason for the slump is the darkening outlook for the world economy. America’s appetite  for oil, for example, had been more or less stagnant(停滞的) for the past few years, but has recently  dropped dramatically. Many now expect global oil demand to fall next year, and perhaps even this year -- which would be the first decline since 1993.
    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not seem able to cut its production fast enough to keep pace with all this grim news. In October the cartel agreed to pump 1.5 million fewer barrels each (lay from November 1st, reducing global supply by about 2%. But that cut is only just beginning to take effect, since it can lake more than a month for tankers to reach their destinations.  Moreover, OPEC’s members do not yet seem to be complying fully with their diminished quotas.
    The king of Saudi Arabia recently "said that ＄75 a barrel would be a fair price --- an idea that other members of the cartel have echoed with enthusiasm. Oil’s plunge has left many of them in dire fiscal straits. This suggests that when the group meets again on December 17th, it will resolve to cut its production further. But Saudi Arabia will not want to bear all the cost, so it will insist that other big producers, such as Iran and Venezuela, should not only agree to further cuts of their own but also implement them.
     Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank argues that OPEC’s past efforts to prop up prices have succeeded more often than not. Since 1993, cuts in production have led to higher prices on three-quarters of occasions. The exceptions, however, have occurred when the world economy has slowed unexpectedly -- most notably in 1998, after the Asian crisis, and in 2001, after the dotcom bubble burst. On those occasions, the price kept falling for more than six months after OPEC first began reducing its output. In 2001, for example, the cartel had to resort to a series of cuts, totaling 5 million barrels, before the price finally began to recover.
    If events take a similar turn this time, Mr. Lewis reckons, OPEC will have to keep cutting its output for another year. The price may not hit rock bottom until early 2010. But the world economy looks less healthy now than it did in 2001, so OPEC may face even more of a struggle this time, he thinks.  
What can we learn about OPEC’s cutting down of their production?
选项 A、Not all the members follow the cutting agreements in practice.
B、They cut its production fast enough to keep the oil price.
C、They would cut the global supply by 2% and no more.
D、The cuts always take effect in no time.
答案A
解析 推理判断题。首先作者在定位句中指出，OPEC成员国目前的减产幅度还不够，然后对他们的减产进行了描述。其中该段最后一句提到OPEC’s members do not yet seem to be complying fully with their diminished quotas，可知并不是所有的成员国都遵守减产协议，A 符合题意。
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