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Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil

admin2010-06-30  85
问题      Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost ＄26 a barrel, up from less than ＄10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
     The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
     Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
     Rich economics are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduces oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economics now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged ＄22 a barrel for a full year, compared with ＄13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25—0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
     One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ______.
选项 A、heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
B、income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
C、manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
D、oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP
答案D
解析 细节题。第四段第一句说：经济发达国家对石油的依赖性比过去低，对油价的浮动也不怎么敏感。接着第二句说：最近一期的《经济展望》杂志估计：和1998年的每桶13美元相比，如果油价持续一年在22美元左右的话，石油进口支出也只占了发达国家国内生产总值(GDP)的 0.25%～0.5%。由此可知，油价的上涨对发达国家的GDP影响甚微。D项正确。
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