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  3. The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. Th

The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. Th

admin2015-02-12  60
问题     The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. The post-crisis period has produced a multi-speed world, as the major advanced economies—with the notable exception of Germany—struggle with low growth and high unemployment, while the main emerging-market economies have restored growth to pre-crisis levels.
    This divergence is mirrored in public finances. Emerging economies’ debt-to-GDP ratios are trending down toward 40%, while those of advanced economies are trending up toward 100%, on average. Neither Europe nor the United States has put in place credible medium-term plans to stabilize their fiscal positions. The volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate reflects the uncertainty about which side of the Atlantic faces higher risks.
    In Europe, this has led to several ratings downgrades of the sovereign debt of the most distressed countries, accompanied by bouts of contagion spilling over to the euro. More seem likely.
    As for the US, Moody’s recently issued a warning on the country’s sovereign debt in the face of uncertainty about Congress’s willingness to raise the debt ceiling amid highly partisan debate about the deficit. Both issues—the debt ceiling and a credible deficit-reduction plan—remain unresolved.
    Moreover, economic growth in the US is modest, and appears to come mainly from segments of the tradable sector that are exposed to and benefit from emerging-market demand. The non-tradable sector, which created virtually all of the new employment in the two decades prior to the crisis, is stagnating, owing to a shortfall in domestic demand and seriously constrained government budgets. The result is persistent unemployment. Meanwhile, the tradable side is not large enough in competitive terms to take up the slack in growth and employment.
    By contrast, emerging markets’ rapid growth and urbanization are delivering a global investment boom, documented in a recent McKinsey Global Institute study. A likely consequence is that the cost of capital will rise in the next few years, putting pressure on highly leveraged entities, including governments that have grown accustomed to a low interest-rate environment and may not see this shift coming.
    Countries with persistent structural current-account deficits will incur additional external-financing costs, and eventually will reach the limits of leverage. At that point, the weak productivity and competitiveness of their tradable sectors will become clear.
    Adjustments will need to be made. The options are higher investment levels financed by domestic savings, productivity growth, and increased competitiveness, or stagnant real incomes as rebalancing occurs through the exchange-rate mechanism.
    Many of these structural problems were hidden from view before the crisis, thereby delaying both market and policy responses. In the US, excess domestic consumption, based on a debt-fueled asset bubble, helped to sustain employment and growth, though the current account held worrying signs. In several European countries, governments, aided by low interest rates, filled in the gap created by lagging productivity.
Which of the following would the author LEAST probably agree?
选项 A、More European countries may suffer from downgrades of the sovereign debt.
B、The employment and growth of the U.S. before the crisis was actually surface flourishing.
C、Governments should make effective efforts to improve the gloomy situation.
D、The problems had been discovered before the crisis, but not been well dealt with.
答案D
解析 属态度推断题。文章第三段提到欧洲部分国家主权信用评级降低，这种现象可能蔓延至其他欧洲国家，故选项A排除。选项B的内容出现在最后一段，金融危机爆发前的就业和增长实际上是基于债务催生的资产泡沫带来的过度国内消费，只是表面繁荣，故选项B排除。选项C在第八段第一句就有所体现，故排除。选项D犯了曲解原文的错误，这些问题在危机前并非被发现但未被解决，而是根本没有被觉察到，故选项D符合题意。
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