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  3. It’s no secret that the job of a political pollster is getting harder and harder every election cycle. People are cutting the la

It’s no secret that the job of a political pollster is getting harder and harder every election cycle. People are cutting the la

admin2015-09-30  75
问题     It’s no secret that the job of a political pollster is getting harder and harder every election cycle. People are cutting the landline, and regulations make it incredibly hard for pollsters to reach voters on their cell phones. Mass onslaughts of getoutthe-vote phone calls near Election Day swamp phone lines and make voters recoil from the idea of actually picking up the phone. Finding voters who are willing to talk about their attitudes and beliefs on politics over the phone is an increasingly difficult challenge. It’s hard out there for a pollster these days.
    Advances in computing allow us to analyze huge quantities of unstructured data(think "my random 140 character musings" instead of "my clear answer to a yes or no question"). Culturally, people are more and more comfortable putting it all out there online, from their tastes in music to their political preferences. Not to mention, samples can be enormous, dwarfing the "small data" samples of a pollster who interviews a thousand registered voters. Technological innovation and a cultural shift toward sharing(and oversharing)make it possible for researchers to assess what people think without having to go to the trouble of actually asking questions.
    Or do they? This week, the Few Research Center is out with a study throwing cold water on the idea that analyzing data from sources like Twitter can be an accurate substitute fur more traditional research methods. They find that Tweets are inconsistent in how they match up with polling data. Twitter users were more excited than American voters as a whole about the re-election of Barack Obama. Meanwhile, Pew finds that Twitter users were less excited about Obama ’ s inaugural address than their poll respondents.
    If the challenges facing more traditional "small data" pollsters are actually pretty big. the challenges facing "big data" analysts are huge in this area. It seems obvious that the demographics of the universe of "people Tweeting about the inaugural address" might be different from the universe of "registered voters nationwide. " While traditional pollsters can get a sense of the race, age, and gender of their samples and make corrections accordingly, it’s a lot harder to know all the demographic data behind the Tweets being analyzed. Not to mention, it’s much less clear what counts as a "positive" or "negative" Tweet in any given context, and that this up-or-down-vote approach to sentiment analysis might be too blunt an instrument to be useful.
    As technology moves forward, so too must the way people gather information about public opinion. But don’t count the "small data" polls out quite yet. While some high-profile misses by political pollsters raised important questions about how accurate election polls really are, quite a few pollsters managed to get it very close to right, even given all the aforementioned challenges pollsters face these days. Both "big data" analysis of online conversations and "small data" surveys and focus groups have a role to play in politics, and smart campaigns will value both as complementary methods of learning about where voters stand.
It can be inferred from the last paragraph that ______.
选项 A、as technology moves forward "small" data polls will be phased out
B、to get accurate election polls will be an mission impossible in the future
C、Technological innovation makes it easy to gather information about public opinion
D、combining "small" and "big" data surveys will be the trend of future political polls.
答案D
解析 本题考查考生对最后一段内容的理解。最后一段的第一句指出随着科技的发展人们采集公众意见的方式也要发展，但是明确在第二句指出不能把“小数据”民调方法排除，故人错误。第三句承认确实一些民调结果出了一些明显的错误，但是紧接着就说还是有相当一部分民调员做到了非常贴近正确结果，可见．在未来想要取得准确选举民意调查结果是可能的．B也错误。C是错误论断．文章一开始就说科技的发展使得人们越来越倾向于在网上发表评论，现在找到些愿意在电话里畅谈他们的政治态度和信仰的投票者是个越来越困难的挑战．时下当个民调员挺不容易的，而且靠分析网络意见的民调方法缺乏准确性。因此科技创新使搜集公众意见信息变得更容易的说法是错误的。最后一段最后一句指出：不管是对网上对话的“大数据”分析，还是“小数据”调查以及小组座谈，都在政治活动中扮演了角色，聪明的竞选活动会把二者视作了解投票者立场的互补方式都予以重视。由此可以推断出．将“大数据”和“小数据”调查方法相结合将是未来政治民意调查的大势所趋．因此D正确。
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