首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Statistic Ⅰ. The defendant is guilty or not? Expert: 1) A DNA sample【1】______ defendant’s.
Statistic Ⅰ. The defendant is guilty or not? Expert: 1) A DNA sample【1】______ defendant’s.
admin
2010-05-14
41
问题
Statistic
Ⅰ. The defendant is guilty or not?
Expert:
1) A DNA sample【1】______ defendant’s. 【1】______
2) The possibility of odds is one in million.
Defense lawyer:
Counter the fact that if in a city of three million people, there are【2】______【2】______
matching each other’ s DNA.
Ⅱ. Unjust discrimination?
1) Universities add additional points to minority group students.
They unlawfully make an easier【3】______ for those students. 【3】______
2) Annie was kept from【4】______. Her lawyer used statistics to show 【4】______
that workers, who were not in【5】______ group, with the same 【5】______
qualifications were promoted.
3) Tobacco companies won the cases because of the【6】______ 【6】______
Warning: statistics should be【7】______ along with other evidence. 【7】______
Ⅲ. Statistics in calculation:
1)【8】______ analysis: e.g. Bert could no longer work. Statisticians 【8】______
predict how long he could work and how long he could have made.
2) Multiple regression analysis: Statistician finds the "best fit"
for all the sample data when multiple independent【9】______ are at work. 【9】______
Ⅳ. Statistics on the witness stand:
--experts know how to make statistics【10】______ 【10】______
--cross examine and challenge the validity of statistics
【6】
Statistics
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Today, we are going to have a lecture on statistics. Firstly, let’s see the effect of statistics in the courtroom.
After the November 2000 election, Americans waited while court challenges debated who won Florida’s electoral votes, In Palm Beach County, third-party candidate Pat Buchanan got a higher percentage of votes than he did elsewhere. Was that because the country’s "butterfly ballot" caused many Albert Gore supporters to punch the wrong hole? Lawyers also argued about other claimed irregularities in the balloting.
The Supreme Court finally stopped all vote recounts in early December. But if Gore’s statistical arguments had convinced the judges, he would have become president instead of George W. Bush. More than ever, plaintiffs must often prove their case with numbers. Let’s see how statistics is taking center stage in some other courtroom cases.
Let’s see the first case whether the defendant is guilty or not.
Imagine you’re on the jury in a murder case. An expert testifies about DNA evidence. She says that a sample from the crime scene matches a defendant’ s. she also gives the odds that someone else would randomly match the tested fragments. If the odds are one in a million, the makes it sound very likely that the defendant is, in fact, guilty. The defense lawyer may try to counter that by saying that in a city of three million people, at least two others would also probably match. Of course, the defendant was not arrested at random. Almost always, police have some other evidence linking a person to a crime. But the statistics supporting DNA evidence may be just the proff needed to find someone guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
Now, I would like you to look at the cases against unjust discrimination.
In a U.S. Supreme Court case earlier this year, lawyers argued over whether a state university’ s admissions plan unlawfully added points for students from certain minority groups. Statistically, that made it easier for those students to get in. statistics factors into other discrimination cases, too. Suppose Annie claims that unlawful discrimination kept her from getting a promotion. Her lawyers may use statistics to show that workers with the same qualifications were significantly more likely to get promotions of they were male or not in a minority group. If the employer can’t show that Annie didn’t do her job well, she could then win her case.
Age, family history, exercise habits, diet, weight, and other factors affect the likelihood of developing cancer, heart disease, and other illnesses. For years, tobacco companies said that smoking was not the cause of plaintiffs getting sick. They won most cases against them. Then, judges and juries listened to statistical evidence that even when other factors were equal, smokers had much higher disease risks. Finally, some cases started to hold tobacco companies liable, or legally responsible.
Of course, the plaintiffs had other evidence, too. Tobacco companies’ own documents showed that they knew about disease risks. Yet their ads still targeted young people. In other words, the statistics did not stand alone. When using statistics, it is important to understand that statistical evidence complements other forms of evidence. Statistical evidence should be evaluated along with other evidence and not alone.
And then how can the court work out the compensation the victims should gain? Statistics help add up damages actually. Statistics help decide how much people or companies must pay if they are liable. Suppose a defect in a car caused an accident. As a result, Bert could no longer work. Statistics could show how long Bert would other wise have worked and how much he probably would have made. When two variables correlate with each other statisticians can often predict one value from another with regression analysis. If someone plotted all the data points on a scatter plot, the analysis would find the line with the best fit through them.
But suppose that people in case claimed that nearby pollution lowered property values for a whole neighborhood. It may be unfair just to match sale prices with distance form the pollution, or to compare average prices with another town. After all, many factors affect property values: style of house, size, age, number of bathrooms, and so forth. That’s where multiple regression analysis can help. It finds the "best fit" for all the sample data when multiple independent variables are at work. It nets out the effects of all these things that are different, so that you are comparing apples to apples.
You will also know that statistics have the power on the witness stand. Good statistical experts make numbers "user--friendly" for the judge and jury. Many use high-tech graphics and other tools to present their conclusions. But statistics can be and have been misused, typically when people have interpreted that statistics to mean more than they really do. A good statistician is careful to explain just how reliable the statistics really are. Cross-examination lets each side attach the other side’s analysis flawed. Were data accurate, or may they have been biased? What was the margin of error? Did one unusual observation, or outlier, unfairly affect the outcome?
Finally, the jury weighs statistical evidence along with all the other evidence. The verdict makes a real difference in the lives of parties to a case--and to our justice system.
Today, we’ve talked about the magic of statistics working in various fields and events, like in the court, in the issues against discrimination, in calculating damages and on the testimony. I hope you would have had a good time.
选项
答案
statistics
解析
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/7blO777K
0
专业英语八级
相关试题推荐
ThestoryofNokia’stransformationfromanobscureFinnishconglomerateintotheworld’slargestmakerofmobilephonesisano
LasVegaswasfounded【B1】______yearsagoandwasofficially【B2】______in1905.Sincethen,LasVegashastransformeditselfint
InBolivia,lifeisslowlyreturningtonormalafteralmostamonthofdemonstrations.【C1】______—frompoorpeasantfarmerstomi
InBolivia,lifeisslowlyreturningtonormalafteralmostamonthofdemonstrations.【C1】______—frompoorpeasantfarmerstomi
Expertsestimatethatsomewherebetween【B1】______and【B2】______ofeverythingwecommunicateisnonverbal.Waysofnonverbalcommu
Expertsestimatethatsomewherebetween【B1】______and【B2】______ofeverythingwecommunicateisnonverbal.Waysofnonverbalcommu
Expertsestimatethatsomewherebetween【B1】______and【B2】______ofeverythingwecommunicateisnonverbal.Waysofnonverbalcommu
Ricci’s"OperationColumbus"1Ricci,45,isnowstrikingoutonperhapshisboldestventureyet.HeplanstomarketanEngl
TheFrenchPresident’svisittoJapanaimsat
RobertCongel,acommercialreal-estatedeveloperwholivesinupstateNewYork,hasaplanto"changetheworld."Convincedtha
随机试题
信息技术对传统业务流程的影响有三种力量,称之为3C,指的是顾客、()和变化。
野外我们第一眼就可以区别出森林和草地,首先依据的是生活型。[]
下列可选用口服短效避孕药的是
下列哪项不属于国际经济法的调整对象?()
项目目标动态控制的纠偏措施包括组织措施、管理措施、经济措施和技术措施。其中,组织措施分析由于()的原因而影响项目目标实现的问题,并采取相应的措施。
甲、乙合作开发完成一项发明,但双方未就专利申请权相关事项作任何约定。根据合同法律制度的规定,下列关于该项发明的专利申请权的表述中,正确的有()。
五线谱的调号分为()两类。
西南联大之所以令知识分子_______,根源就在于它所象征的独立自由的学术品性。我们今天纪念西南联大,在追思先人的时候,更在于反思当下,用西南联大的精神鼓舞自我,纠正因功利心而走偏的学术探索,_______读书和教育的初心本意。
だんだん 和食にも 慣れて————が、納豆は まだ 食べられません。
AsdefinedbyGreekphilosophersandancientIndianphilosophers,musicisviewedastonesorderedhorizontallyasmelodiesand
最新回复
(
0
)