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  3. International investors seem incapable of ending their love affair with the dollar. America’s economy has slowed sharply this ye

International investors seem incapable of ending their love affair with the dollar. America’s economy has slowed sharply this ye

admin2009-06-24  60
问题     International investors seem incapable of ending their love affair with the dollar. America’s economy has slowed sharply this year, yet its currency has risen to a 15 year high in trade-weighted terms. Against the euro the dollar touched $0.88—8% higher than in early January an close to the level at which the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve jointly intervened to prop up the European currency last September. Why is the euro looking sickly?
    There are plenty of theories. One is that the markets do not trust the ECB: the euro-area economies are not immune to America’s downturn, yet the central bank still seems more concerned with fighting inflation than with supporting growth.
66.______.
    Most economists reckon that the euro is undervalued and expect a rebound over the next year. One of the most optimistic is Goldman Sachs, which is predicting a rate of $1.22 in 12 months.
67.______.
    He has found that, over the past decade, movements in the real exchange rate of the euro against the dollar have closely reflected the difference between productivity growth in the euro area and in America. When productivity growth in America has been faster than in Europe—as it was in most of the late 1990s—the euro falls, and vice versa.
68.______.
    Mr. Owen uses monthly data for productivity growth in manufacturing, a good proxy for the traded-goods sector. Using annual productivity data for the whole economy (which are available over a longer period), the broad relationship between the exchange rate and relative productivity growth in America and Europe seems to have persisted for most of the past 30 years.
    Mr. Owen reckons that, in the short term, America’s downturn will reduce the productivity gap between America and the euro area—and so boost the euro.
69.______.
    Only if the downturn completely kills the belief in America’s new paradigm, and its productivity growth plummets, will the euro be able to rebound more permanently.
    The strength of the dollar this year does indeed seem to hinge on a belief among investors that America’s slowdown will be brief, and that in the longer run America remains the best place in which to invest. But they may be underestimating the potential for productivity gains in Europe, as the single currency boosts competition and encourages firms to exploit economies of scale through mergers and acquisitions. The adoption of more flexible working practices in many countries should also help to improve productivity.
    Studies in America suggest that the bulk of its productivity gains from information technology come from the use of IT rather than from its production.

A. So the euro area, too, should start to enjoy productivity gains over the next decade, as it makes full use of IT. If you believe that Europe really is starting to change, buy euros. If not, stick with the darling dollar.
B. This is exactly what economic theory would predict: Countries with faster productivity growth in the traded-goods sector should see rising real exchange rates.
C. Some euro-skeptics worry that the expanding power of the European Union will eventually lead to the merger of today’s European countries into one new country. They believe that possibility becomes stronger if Britain joins the euro. But pro-euro activist Nick Canning says such fears are unfounded.
D. Another more plausible explanation is that, in an uncertain global economic climate, the dollar has resumed its traditional role as a safe-haven currency.
E. But an analysis by David Owen, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, gives pause for thought.
F. But in the long term, he expects productivity growth to remain faster in America—in which case, a sustained rise in the euro is unlikely over the next few years.

选项
答案B
解析 本题前后两段说明的都是David (Oven的理论，但答题关键却是前面一段。该段分析的是欧元、美元与欧洲、美国生产力增长之间的对应关系，指出美国的生产力增长快过欧洲时，欧元就会贬值，并且反之亦然。由逻辑与行文来看，这里说明的是一种现象，接下来则应有相应的理论来支持和解释这一现象，因此选B。
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