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  3. America is used to making the economic weather. It has the world’s largest economy, it’s most influential central bank and it is

America is used to making the economic weather. It has the world’s largest economy, it’s most influential central bank and it is

admin2019-08-01  17
问题     America is used to making the economic weather. It has the world’s largest economy, it’s most influential central bank and it issued the main global reserve currency. In recent months, however, some rich-world economies(notably German’s)have basked in the sunshine even as the clouds gathered over America.
    On August 27th America’s second-quarter GDP growth was revises down to an annualized 1.6%. That looked moribund compared with the 9% rate confirmed in Germany a few days earlier. America’s jobless rate was 9.5% in July. But in Germany the unemployment rate is lower even than before the downturn. Other rich countries, including Britain and Australia, have enjoyed sprightlier recent GDP growth and lower unemployment than America.
    This unusual divergence within the rich world has fostered many competing theories to explain it, including differences in fiscal policies, exchange rates and debt levels. Most of these do not quite fit the facts. On one account Germany and, to a lesser extent, Britain have been rewarded for taking a firm grip on their public finances. In this view, the promise to tackle budget deficits has had a liberating effect on private spending by reducing uncertainty. In America, by contrast, anxiety about public debt is making businesses and consumers tighten their purse strings.
    The theory is a little too neat. Although credible plans to curb deficits are helpful to medium-term growth, they are unlikely to explain sudden spurts. Britain’s budget plans were announced towards the end of the quarter, on June 22nd. Germany’s were set out two weeks earlier. They could scarcely explain why GDP growth was strong. Indeed for most of the second quarter, fiscal uncertainty hung over both countries: in Britain because of a close election, in Germany because of commitments to help Greece and other countries.
    Perhaps the explanation is found in currency movements. One effect of the euro-area crisis was to push the euro down against the dollar in the early months of this year—helping German firms but harming American exporters. Much of Germany’s second-quarter GDP growth came from trade, even as a wider trade gap sapped America’s economy. A weak pound could also explain Britain’s renewed economic strength, much as a surge in the yen has increased worries about Japan. On August 30th Japan’s central bank said it would offer banks ￥ 10 trillion of six-month secured loans at its benchmark interest rate of 0.1%, on top of the ￥20 trillion of three-month loans it had already pledged. It hopes that this flood of money will push down borrowing costs, cap the yen’s rise and help exporters.
    The currency theory also has holes in it. The yen’s surge is too recent to explain why Japan’s GDP barely rose in the second quarter. Net trade added almost nothing to Britain’s GDP growth in the last quarter. Indeed America’s export growth has been much stronger.
    The best explanation for the uneven pattern of rich-world activity is also the most prosaic. America’s recovery is more advanced and its firms have rebuilt their stocks sooner. Europe’s business cycle tends to lag America’s by a quarter or two. Recent indicators point to greater convergence. The index of American manufacturing published by the Institute of Supply Management unexpectedly picked up from 55.5 to 56.3 in August. The corresponding indices for the euro area and Britain fell back, to 55.1 and 54.3 respectively. America’s economy may have some unique troubles, but its fortunes strongly tied to the rest of the rich world.
On which of the following would the author least probably agree?
选项 A、America should take a firm grim on its public finance.
B、America should weaken dollar to protect its exporters’ interests.
C、By addressing fiscal deficits America can probably reduce economic unpredictability.
D、The global economies are closely intertwined with one another.
答案B
解析 属信息推断题。选项B不合作者的观点，美元作为最为重要的世界货币之一，其地位可想而知，让美元一味的贬值是不符合经济规律的，若让美元对其他外币汇率浮动过大的话不利于世界经济的平稳发展，不利于各国的经济复苏，更不能维护美国的经济利益。
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