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  3. International investors seem incapable of ending their love affair with the dollar. America’s economy has slowed sharply this y

International investors seem incapable of ending their love affair with the dollar. America’s economy has slowed sharply this y

admin2011-03-14  97
问题     International investors seem incapable of ending their love affair with the dollar.  America’s economy has slowed sharply this year, yet its currency has risen to a 15-year high in trade-weighted terms. Against the euro the dollar touched $0.88—8% higher than in early January and close to the level at which the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve jointly intervened to prop up the European currency last September. Why is the euro looking sickly?
    There are plenty of theories. One is that the markets do not trust the ECB: the  euro-area economies are not immune to America’s downturn, yet the central bank still seems more concerned with fighting inflation than with supporting growth; another more plausible explanation is that, in an uncertain global economic climate, the dollar has resumed its traditional role as a safe-haven currency. Most economists reckon that the euro is undervalued and expect a rebound over the next year. One of the most optimistic is Goldman Sachs, which is predicting a rate of $1.22 in 12 months.
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答案 国际投资者们似乎无法舍弃他们对美元的偏爱。本年度，美国的经济已急剧下滑，然而，在按贸易额加权的情况下，美元却增长到了15年来的高点。美元兑换欧元的比率达到0.88美元兑换1欧元，比一月初高出8%，接近去年九月欧洲中央银行和美联储联合干预以支持欧元时的水平。为什么欧元显得如此疲软呢? 对此有许多说法。其中之一是市场不相信欧洲中央银行：欧元区经济并非不受美国经济衰退的影响，但是中央银行更关注的似乎仍然是克服通货膨胀，而不是支持经济增长；另一个似乎更合理的解释是，在全球经济不稳定的情况下，美元重新获得了安全货币的传统角色。大多数经济学家认为，欧元的价值被低估了，他们认为欧元明年会反弹。高曼?萨克斯是其中最乐观的估计者之一——他预计在12个月内会出现1.22美元兑换1欧元的汇率。
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