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  3. Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, changeable commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past

Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, changeable commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past

admin2013-09-16  17
问题     Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, changeable commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s .【F1】Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and changeable for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold—barring a major macroeconomic shock—as global resource markets vibrate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies.
    Such dramatic growth in demand for commodities actually isn’t unusual. Similar factors were at play throughout the 20th century as the planet’s population tripled and demand for various resources jumped anywhere from 600 to 2,000 percent. Had supply remained constant, commodity prices would have soared.【F2】Yet dramatic improvements in exploration, extraction, and cultivation techniques kept supply ahead of ever-increasing global needs, cutting the real price of an equally weighted index of key commodities by almost half. This ability to access progressively cheaper resources underpinned a 20-fold expansion of the world economy.
    However, it’s different today. First, we are now aware of the potential climatic impact of carbon emissions associated with surging resource use.【F3】Without major changes, global carbon emissions will remain significantly above the level required to keep increases in the global temperature below the threshold identified as potentially catastrophic.
    Second, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to expand the supply of commodities, especially in the short run.【F4】While there may not be absolute resource shortages—the perceived risk of one has historically spurred efficiency-enhancing innovations—we are at a point where supply is increasingly inelastic. Long-term marginal costs are increasing for many resources as depletion rates accelerate and new investments are made in more complex, less productive locations.
    【F5】Higher commodity prices are one way of bringing supply and demand nearer to balance—but not a desirable means for most policy makers and business leaders, since lofty prices can drag down profits and growth. Another approach is to squeeze greater "productivity" from natural resources by, for example improving mining recovery rates.
    Our research summarized in a forthcoming McKinsey Global Institute report on the world’s natural-resource needs in the 21st century—suggests that better resource productivity could single-handedly meet more than 20 percent of forecast 2030 demand for energy, steel, water, and land. In addition, higher long-term resource prices might create the necessary incentive for breakthroughs, especially around energy-related technologies that could reduce carbon emissions. More will need to be done of course, and we’re not suggesting that it’s easy. Yet as we enter a new era for commodities, there’s little choice but to act.
【F4】
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答案尽管不会出观绝对性资源短缺——此类感知风险曾激发历史上提高效率的创新——我们却处于一个供给越来越缺乏弹性的时代。
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