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  3. A truly informed diner would choose a restaurant based on the quality of the menu and the chef’s experience. The discerning inve

A truly informed diner would choose a restaurant based on the quality of the menu and the chef’s experience. The discerning inve

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问题     A truly informed diner would choose a restaurant based on the quality of the menu and the chef’s experience. The discerning investor would decide which company to back after studying the business plan and meeting the founders. In reality, people often copy the choices of others. 【R1】______
    Such bandwagon effects are not necessarily irrational.【R2】______ It can also be a way of coping with a surplus of choice: rather than study 100 models of music player, why not assume the market has already figured out the worse?
    The existence of bandwagon behavior can be hard to prove. A product or an asset usually becomes popular(or unpopular)in the first place because it is genuinely superior(or inferior). But some have tried to isolate the self-fulfilling effects of popularity. In a 2008 study by Matthew Salganik of Princeton University and Duncan Watts, now at Microsoft Research, participants tricked into believing a song was more popular than it actually was were more likely to download it.
    Scholars are now asking whether bandwagon behavior also prevails in labor markets. Although the number of long-term unemployed in America is coming down, is still near an all-time high. Such workers may simply be losing out to candidates with more qualifications or experience for the jobs that come open. A worse possibility is that long-term unemployment is at least partly self-fulfilling: employers may be reluctant to hire someone others have already passed over.
    【R3】______The submissions were designed so that applicants with similar backgrounds, education and experience went for the same job. The only difference was how long the applicant had been jobless, a period that ranged from no time at all to as much as 36 months.
    【R4】______These results strongly suggest that long-term unemployment is at least partly self-fulfilling. Like patrons who avoid restaurants purely because they are empty, employers were reluctant to hire someone other employers didn’t want.
    Although such bandwagon behavior may be rational, it can also lead to poor outcomes.
    【R5】______One near miss can increase the odds of protracted failure.
[A]Often, the buyer knows less about a product than the seller; the collective wisdom of the crowd can correct for such "asymmetric information".
[B]These results, the authors say, cannot be because employers found some qualitative flaw in the longer-term unemployed that was hidden from outsiders, since the applicants were similar in other respects.
[C]Diners pick the crowded restaurant over the empty one. Investors go with the company that already has multiple backers.
[D]Their study suggests that taking some work is better than none for the recently unemployed.
[E]Imagine a newly unemployed worker who narrowly misses out on the first job he applies for. That initial failure reduces his odds of landing the second job he applies for, and so on, until he ends up as one of the long-term unemployed.
[F]They found that the odds of an applicant being called back by an employer declined steadily as the duration of unemployment rose, from 7.4% after one month without work down to 4-5% at the eight-month mark, where the call-back rate stabilized.
[G]To find out, Kory Kroft of the University of Toronto, Fabian Lange of McGill University and Matthew Notowidigdo of the University of Chicago devised an experiment in which they applied for 3,000 clerical, administrative, sales and customer-service jobs advertised online by submitting 12,000 fictitious CVs.
【R5】
选项
答案E
解析 空格处前面提到尽管这种从众行为可能是理性的，但它也会导致严重后果。由此推测，空格处的内容应该涉及从众行为的负面影响。而空格处后面的内容又指出，一次的失误会增加连续失利的几率。联系上下文可知空格部分的内容应该涉及从众行为会增加有过失误的人连续失利的几率。在所有选项中，只有[E]项传达了这方面的信息。[E]项指出：一个刚刚失业的劳动者首次求职的失败会减少他第二次求职时获得工作的几率，到最后他不得不接受自己成为长期失业者的现实。这既和后文的“一次的失误会增加其连续失利的几率”相照应，也和前文紧密衔接，因此为正确选项。
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