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  3. The Invisible Fuel Provides Ensurance for Energy Security in the Future A)When energy economists gaze into their crystal balls t

The Invisible Fuel Provides Ensurance for Energy Security in the Future A)When energy economists gaze into their crystal balls t

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问题             The Invisible Fuel Provides Ensurance for Energy Security in the Future
A)When energy economists gaze into their crystal balls to see what the world will look like in 20 years’ time, some things are clearer than others. Clearest of all is that the global population will grow and with it the world economy. As countries get richer, their demand for energy will rise, placing ever new strains on the planet’ s natural resources.
B)A closer look at forecasts for energy demand, however, reveals some surprising conclusions. Consider ExxonMobil’ s annual energy outlook to 2040. The company says that total energy demand is growing: the world will need 35 per cent more energy in 2040 than it does now. That growth rate pales in comparison with that of the world economy as a whole: Exxon says global GDP will expand by 135 per cent over the same period. What is more, in the world’ s advanced economies—Europe, North America and Japan—energy demand will not grow at all.
C)The reason for this is energy efficiency. "The greatest source of energy in the future will be using it more efficiently," says Bill Colton, Exxon’s vice-president for corporate strategy, and one of the authors of the outlook. "Huge amounts of energy will be saved in this way."
D)In the battle against climate change, renewables were long seen as the silver bullet. The argument was that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar power would reduce carbon emissions and thereby slow or even stop global warming, as well as curb consuming countries’ huge dependence on expensive imported oil and gas. But in the debate about our energy future, the theme of energy efficiency—called the "invisible fuel" by some—is taking on a new prominence. Consumers are starting to understand that the energy they do not use can have almost as much impact as the energy they do.
E)The result is a shift in thinking about everything from building design to street lighting. That means the future of energy is no longer the preserve of oil companies, wind farm developers and government officials, but of everyone from architects and appliance manufacturers to civil engineers and carmakers. Big energy savings have been achieved by seemingly minor technological changes such as moving from gas boilers for space heating to heat pumps.
F)The potential prize is enormous. A recent report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Germany found that the EU’ s energy requirements could end up being 57 per cent lower in 2050 than they were in 1990, offering the tantalizing prospect of 500bn a year in energy savings.
G)The institute says energy use in buildings could be cut by 71 per cent, mainly through better insulation, modern construction technology and energy efficient heating and hot water systems. In transportation, improvements in traffic management and better logistics could result in energy savings of 53 per cent, while more efficient steam generation and electric motors could help reduce industrial energy demand by 52 percent.
H)Cumulative spending on such measures is growing fast. The International Energy Agency(IEA)says that in 2011 $180bn was invested globally in projects aimed at improving energy efficiency. Yet that is a paltry sum compared to the money flowing into traditional energy production. The IEA says more than three times that amount— nearly $600bn—was invested the same year in expanding or maintaining the world’s supply of fossil fuels.
I)The problem is that there are still significant barriers. With assets such as buildings, the payback time for investing in an improvement in energy efficiency can be several years—often longer than the buyer plans to own the asset. Also, it can be hard to measure success. The EU recently said it would not meet its target of saving 20 per cent of its primary energy consumption by 2020, partly because of the "lack of appropriate tools for monitoring progress and measuring impacts on the member state level".
J)There is another potential danger—the so-called "rebound effect". If you save money on electricity by installing a heat pump, for example, but spend what you save on air travel, the improvement in energy efficiency is meaningless. The EU has identified rebound losses of 10-30 per cent.
K)Still, despite the potential dangers, companies involved in energy efficiency are becoming a new and attractive asset class for investors. Alastair Bishop, portfolio manager of BlackRock’s natural resources team, singles out companies such as Schneider Electric and Johnson Controls, specialists in building automation systems that monitor and control the heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting in an office block. Such companies install sensors that turn off lights in a room when it is empty or shut down heating overnight, steps that can contribute to big savings.
L)"If you look at the larger energy story, before the financial crisis it was all about producing more energy," Mr. Bishop says. "But since the crisis, there’s been more awareness of the sustainability and affordability of power." Nevertheless, he stresses that investments need government support to work. This is happening—on a large scale. In recent years, all the major energy-consuming countries have passed laws to encourage energy efficiency. The US has introduced new fuel-economy standards for vehicles; the EU has its target of reducing energy demand by 20 per cent by 2020; Japan wants to cut electricity demand by 10 per cent in 2030 compared to 2010; and China has a goal of cutting energy intensity by 16 per cent between 2011 and 2015. "There’s a theme here," says Exxon’ s Mr. Colton. "The improvement in efficiency that we’ ve been seeing is mostly being driven by government policy. Consumers would not get there on their own."
M)Some policies are highly specific. In 2010, the EU adopted a directive on the energy performance of buildings. It requires all new buildings to be "nearly zero energy" by 2021. On a national scale, too, governments are coming up with evermore innovative ways of encouraging energy savings. Under the UK’ s Green Deal scheme, for example, consumers can take out a loan for home improvement measures such as getting rid of an old boiler and pay it back through a surcharge on their electricity bills.
N)Although energy conservation is a big concern in the west, some parts of the world have made little or no progress. The abundance of fossil fuels in the Middle East and the low cost of energy—with heavily subsidized prices for petrol and gas—gives the region little incentive to husband resources.
O)The IEA says the average efficiency of fossil fuel power generation in the Middle East is just 33 per cent—9 per cent lower than in the west. That is why some are sceptical that global energy intensity—the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP—will come down drastically soon. Futurologist Jorgen Randers, in a report offering a global forecast for the next 40 years, expects energy intensity to fall by only a third compared to 2010—not enough to stop catastrophic climate change. Still, Maria Vander Hoeven, the IEA’ s executive director, believes: "The most secure energy is the barrel or megawatt we never have to use".
There are still obstacles for energy efficiency and its effect is difficult to estimate.
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答案I
解析 题干意为提高能源利用率的道路上仍然有障碍，而且其效果很难预计。该句是I段第一句“The problem is that there are still significant barriers．”和第三句“Also，it can be hard to measure success．”的综合，题干中“obstacles”和“difficult to estimate”分别与原文“barriers”和“hard to measure”相对应。
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