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  3. (1)The dramatic collapse in American consumer confidence, following the World Trade Center attack, increases the likelihood that

(1)The dramatic collapse in American consumer confidence, following the World Trade Center attack, increases the likelihood that

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问题     (1)The dramatic collapse in American consumer confidence, following the World Trade Center attack, increases the likelihood that the US economy will slide into recession.  It’s not a nice message, but there’s no point in ignoring life’s harsh realities.
    (2)America’s economy had been dragged along for nearly 18 months by the refusal of US consumers to face up to the fact that they were spending more than they were earning, share prices (especially in the hightech sector) were in retreat, corporate America was cutting investment, and US unemployment was about to rise. The devastation wrought by the suicide killers has shaken American consumers from their state of denial. In Europe too, consumers have been rattled by the Manhattan atrocity and President Bush’s subsequent determination to hunt down the killers. A survey by a- research group on behalf of the European Commission shows consumer confidence falling across the eurozone countries.
    (3)But it’s America that is the greatest cause for concern. When the US stops spending, the rest of the world suffers. It imports more than any other country. In Britain, for example, Americans represent a big chunk of the tourism market, especially in London. The US is also crucially important to British-based car manufacturers, such as Jaguar and Land Rover, which seem certain to feel the pinch along with other luxury brands. This economic slowdown is not the creation of fevered press minds; it’s real and it’s now. That’s why the US government is considering a $100 billion revival package, including cuts in capital gains taxes and corporate taxes, to stimulate demand. Likewise, central banks in America, Europe and Britain have trimmed interest rates to beat off a credit crunch and lubricate the wheels of commerce. Their swift action is a tacit admission that a deep recession is possible, if not probably.
    (4)Leading US investment bank, Morgan Stanley, told the Financial Times, "Never in their lifetimes have so many Americans feared for their safety in going to work, taking time off, or in procuring their daily needs." Stock markets, where most international indexes are about 30% below their 1999-2000 peaks, are telling us that corporate earnings are likely to be much lower than analysts had expected. Some sectors, such as airlines, hotels and insurance will be driven deep into loss.
    (5)There is also a share-price discount for uncertainty, the biggest element of which is the extent of American military actions. Until the scale of the Middle East conflict becomes clear, investors will continue to shun the risk of equities for the certainty of cash and government bonds. Recovery will come. It always does. But a swift return to the go-go days of the late 1990s is inconceivable.
What does the author think about the future of the economy?
选项 A、He expects that the economy won’t relate to military actions.
B、He expects that the economy will be better than the late 1990s.
C、He is affirmative that the economy will revive.
D、He is uncertain whether the economy will revive.
答案C
解析 最后一段第3、4句表明作者相信经济在将来一定会复苏，所以本题应选C。最后一段开头两句提到了军事行动对股票、投资等产生影响，也提及军事局势明朗后，投资者就能恢复信心，但这不意味着作者认为将来的经济会与军事脱离关系，因此A不正确；B中的better than…属于随意比较，文中并没有比较的依据；D与原文内容相反，事实上原文作者他很确定经济一定会复苏。
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