首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there fo
admin
2022-06-24
25
问题
One of the most alarming things about the crisis in the global financial system is that the warning signs have been out there for some time, yet no one heeded them. Exactly 10 years ago, a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) failed to convince investors that it could repay its debts, thereby bringing the world to the brink of a similar "liquidity crisis" to the one we now see. Disaster was averted then only because regulators managed to put together a multi-billion-dollar bailout package.
LTCM’s collapse was particularly notable because its founders had set great store by their use of statistical models designed to keep tabs on the risks inherent in their investments. Its fall should have been a wake-up call to banks and their regulatory supervisors that the models were not working as well as hoped—in particular that they were ignoring the risks of extreme events and the connections that send such events reverberating around the financial system. Instead, they carried on using them.
Now that disaster has struck again, some financial risk modelers—the "quants" who have wielded so much influence over modern banking—are saying they know where the gaps in their knowledge are and are promising to fill them. Should we trust them?
Their track record does not inspire confidence. Statistical models have proved almost useless at predicting the killer risks for individual banks, and worse than useless when it comes to risks to the financial system as a whole. The models encouraged bankers to think they were playing a high-stakes card game, when what they were actually doing was more akin to lining up a row of dominoes.
How could so many smart people have gotten it so wrong? One reason is that their faith in their model’s predictive power led them to ignore what was happening in the real world. Finance offers enormous scope for
dissembling
: almost any failure can be explained away by a judicious choice of language and data. When investors do not behave like the self-interested homo economics that economists suppose them to be, they are described as being "irrationally exuberant" or blinded by panic. An alternative view—that investors are reacting logically in the face of uncertainty—is rarely considered. Similarly, extreme events are described as happening only "once in a century"—even though there is insufficient data on which to base such an assessment.
The quants’ models might successfully predict the movement of markets most of the time, but the bankers who rely on them have failed to realize that the occasions on which the markets deviate from normality are much more important than those when they comply. The events of the past year have driven this home in a spectacular fashion: by some estimates, the banking industry has lost more money in the current crisis than it has made in its entire history.
The statistical models used by LTCM
选项
A、had an influence on the entire financial sector.
B、only dealt with risks within the scope of the fund.
C、were applied to different financial operations.
D、had inherent flaws known to their users.
答案
B
解析
根据第二段第一句中“its founders had set great store by their use of statistical models designed to keep tabs on the risks inherent in their investments”可知,他们只注重于自己的投资中固有的风险方面,故选B。
转载请注明原文地址:https://kaotiyun.com/show/KbPd777K
本试题收录于:
公共英语五级笔试题库公共英语(PETS)分类
0
公共英语五级笔试
公共英语(PETS)
相关试题推荐
Thereasonswhygamesfascinatestudentsarethefollowingstatementsexceptthat______.
Employeestodayworkshorterhoursbuttakelongervacationthanin1979.
Withthewidespreadcomputers,thereisanincreaseinthenumberofpeoplemakinguseofInternet.SomepeoplebelievethatInt
Dr.MarvinMarshalldevelopedasystemthatwouldpromoteresponsiblebehaviorbyinternallymotivatingstudents.Drawingonhis
InBritain,theHouseofCommonsisarepresentativeassemblyelectedbyvotersorelectorsthroughageneralelectionandby-el
Youhavereadanarticleinanewspaperwhichstates,"Collegeeducationisofgreaterbenefittotheindividualtitantotheso
Duringtheperiod1490~1979themainprogressmentionedinthispassagewas______.Siebe’sinventionwasnotaperfectone,be
WhichisNOTthepurposeoftheadultstudentstakingpartinadultprograms?
Inthefollowingarticlesomeparagraphshavebeenremoved.ForQuestions66~70,choosethemostsuitableparagraphfromthelist
Defendersofspecialprotectivelaborlegislationforwomenoftenmaintainthateliminatingsuchlawswoulddestroythefruitso
随机试题
为反映实物的大小,绘图时应尽量采用________的比例。
若血糖高于正常而又未达到诊断糖尿病标准时,为确诊糖尿病应首选的检查方法是
麝香的功效是石菖蒲的功效是
采集血气分析标本时,错误的操作是()。
个人住房贷款抵押合同自()之日起生效。
在通常情况下,利率的最高界限是()。
挡土墙会受到土体的土压力包括()。
在某建设工程施工过程中,由于出现脚手架倒塌事故而造成实际进度拖后,承包商根据监理工程师指令采取赶工措施后,仍未能按合同工期完成所承包的任务,则承包商()。
甲乙二人合伙经营一辆长途汽车,由二人轮流驾驶经营。在乙驾驶经营期间,因疏忽大意,将一行人撞伤,则()。
下列哪些是2015年中央一号文件提出的经济任务?()
最新回复
(
0
)